EURUSD – Corrective Bounce Possible Before Fresh Attack on 2026 Low

EUR/USD remains under pressure on Friday, hovering near its 2026 low at 1.1410 and on track for a third consecutive daily decline. The pair continues to react negatively to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance, with Wednesday’s selloff marking its largest one-day drop since 30 July 2025 following the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged while maintaining a tightening bias.

Although the pair briefly approached its year-to-date low during Friday’s session, a subsequent rebound produced a long lower shadow on the daily candle, suggesting that sellers are beginning to encounter stronger resistance around this key support area.

The combination of oversold conditions and end-of-week position adjustments could encourage partial profit-taking, opening the door for a period of consolidation or a limited corrective recovery.

However, the broader technical picture remains decisively bearish. The recent bearish crossover of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages reinforces the negative outlook and suggests that any near-term stabilization may simply serve as a pause before another attempt to extend losses.

On the upside, the broken 1.1500 support zone, which previously acted as a base and psychological level, now represents initial resistance. Additional resistance is seen at the descending 10-day moving average at 1.1536, which is expected to cap corrective rallies.

A decisive break below the 1.1410 low would strengthen bearish momentum and shift focus toward 1.1355, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0177–1.2082 rally. A sustained move beneath these levels would generate a strong bearish signal and expose the pair to a deeper correction of the broader January 2025–January 2026 advance.

Res: 1.1500; 1.1536; 1.1578; 1.1620
Sup: 1.1410; 1.1355; 1.1283; 1.1215