Crude retreats as markets price in potential progress in peace negotiations.

Brent crude dropped nearly $4 on Monday as initial concerns over stalled peace negotiations, which triggered a gap higher at the weekly open, gave way to a more optimistic tone following comments from senior U.S. officials.

The renewed sell-off has once again pushed prices below the key 200-day moving average at $78.05, a support level that successfully withstood four consecutive tests last week.

On the upside, the market remains capped by the broken 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $81.91, which has now turned into strong resistance.

Improving prospects for a broader regional peace agreement and the eventual normalization of energy supplies are expected to keep downward pressure on oil prices. A sustained break below the 200DMA would reinforce the bearish outlook and signal continuation of the broader decline following a period of consolidation.

Daily technical indicators show strengthening negative momentum, while moving averages remain aligned in a predominantly bearish configuration. However, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting that sellers may continue to encounter resistance around the 200DMA, potentially resulting in an extended phase of sideways trading before a clearer directional move emerges.

The next downside target is located at $73.04, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the $58.70–$119.47 advance, which protects the key psychological support at $70. For now, the near-term bias remains bearish while prices remain below the $81.91 Fibonacci barrier.

Res: 80.79; 81.91; 84.18; 85.29
Sup: 76.56; 75.76; 73.04; 70.00