EUR/USD: Bears target 1.10 as consolidation may precede another leg lower
The euro remained under sustained pressure against the US dollar on Thursday, holding near a fresh 2026 low of 1.1160 as a stronger dollar, elevated oil prices and mounting concerns over France’s fiscal position weighed on the single currency.
The euro has now remained firmly in negative territory for a fourth consecutive week, with EUR/USD breaking below the lower boundary of a multi-month bearish channel. The move reinforces the downside outlook and puts the 1.1130–1.1100 area in focus, with a break below that zone potentially opening the way toward the key psychological level at 1.1000.
French fiscal concerns add to pressure
The euro’s decline comes as investors continue to monitor worsening fiscal tensions in France, adding another source of pressure to an already fragile outlook for the currency.
Meanwhile, weaker German trade data could further undermine near-term sentiment. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed as exports declined again, while imports showed only a modest improvement, pointing to continued weakness in the region’s largest economy.
Technical signals remain bearish
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains entrenched in a broader downtrend. The pair has extended the third wave of a five-wave decline that began from the August 21 high of 1.1711, with the move now appearing significantly stretched.
Daily momentum indicators remain firmly bearish, while a series of moving-average bearish crossovers reinforces the negative technical structure. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has remained in oversold territory for an extended period, suggesting that the pair could face increasing resistance to further declines in the short term.
The 1.1130–1.1100 region represents an important technical support zone, coinciding with the 50% retracement of the 1.0177–1.2082 advance, the 200-week moving average and the psychological 1.1100 level. A sustained break below this area would increase the risk of a deeper decline toward 1.1000.
Any rebound likely to remain corrective
Despite increasingly stretched technical conditions, any recovery in the euro is likely to remain limited while the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor the dollar.
Initial resistance is seen around 1.1235, followed by the 1.1280–1.1320 zone. This area includes the declining 10-day moving average and the former June 24 low, making it a key barrier for any corrective rebound.
A failure to reclaim that zone would keep the broader bearish structure intact and could provide sellers with an opportunity to re-enter the market at higher levels.
Resistance: 1.1235; 1.1280; 1.1320; 1.1355
Support: 1.1160; 1.1130; 1.1100; 1.1065
