GBPJPY – Bulls Lose Momentum Near Key 200 Psychological Barrier

GBPJPY retreated from a fresh one-year high as bullish momentum began to fade near the key psychological resistance at 200.00.

The Japanese yen remains under broad pressure following repeated failures in trade negotiations with the U.S., alongside renewed threats from President Trump to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports. Given Japan’s export-driven economy and its status as a major U.S. trading partner, failure to reach a deal raises the risk of significant economic impact.

Technically, bullish momentum is weakening as the pair approached the 200.00 barrier, with early signs of a reversal emerging on the hourly chart. Overbought daily stochastic readings and waning upside momentum likely triggered profit-taking, further reinforced by a developing shooting star candlestick pattern on the daily chart—an early sign of potential reversal.

Despite these signals, the broader uptrend remains intact. Daily indicators suggest room for a corrective pullback, which could serve as a consolidation phase before further gains. Ideally, the pullback should remain above the rising daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 197.59), with deeper corrections not extending beyond the Kijun-sen at 196.54 to preserve the bullish structure.

A break below the Kijun-sen—and particularly below the July 2 higher low at 195.35—would undermine bullish momentum and open the door for a deeper retracement.

Meanwhile, traders will closely monitor the performance of the British pound ahead of May GDP data. The release will be pivotal in assessing whether the UK economy is beginning to recover from April’s steepest contraction in 18 months.

Res: 199.82; 200.00; 200.52; 200.93
Sup: 198.80; 197.59; 196.54; 195.74