USD/JPY Lacks Clear Directional Signals, with a Slight Bullish Bias

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on Friday but remained confined to its 158.50–156.50 trading range for a seventh consecutive session, as conflicting technical signals continued to limit the scope for a decisive directional move.

The upper boundary at 158.50 remains a key resistance area, reinforced by the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 163.94 to 152.88. The lower boundary of the declining daily Ichimoku cloud also converges in this region, adding to the technical barriers facing the pair in the near term.

Despite the lack of a clear breakout, USD/JPY is on track to post its fourth consecutive weekly advance. However, mixed daily technical indicators suggest that the broader outlook remains inconclusive, with the pair retaining a modest upside bias as it tests the upper end of its recent range.

Resistance Breakout Needed to Strengthen the Bullish Outlook

A sustained break above 158.50 would provide the first meaningful bullish signal, but confirmation above 159.03, the September 24 swing high, would be needed to strengthen the upside outlook and open the way toward 159.50, where the 100-day moving average is located, followed by the psychologically significant 160.00 level.

However, a move toward 160.00 could increase the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities, potentially limiting further gains and amplifying volatility.

157.30 Emerges as Initial Support

On the downside, initial support is located around 157.30, corresponding to this week’s low and the 20-day moving average. A sustained break below this area would weaken the near-term bullish bias and expose the lower boundary of the broader trading range at 156.50.

Until the pair clears either boundary decisively, USD/JPY is likely to remain range-bound, with the balance of risks tilted slightly to the upside.

Resistance levels: 158.50, 159.03, 159.50, 159.72

Support levels: 157.50, 157.30, 156.95, 156.50