AUD/USD Recovery Attempts Remain Limited as 0.7000 Caps Upside Momentum

Fresh recovery attempts at the start of the week once again lost momentum ahead of the key 0.7000 psychological barrier, as firmer oil prices and a stronger US dollar weighed on risk appetite.

The pair’s repeated inability to overcome initial Fibonacci resistance at 0.6982, representing the 23.6% retracement of the 0.7237/0.6903 decline, coupled with rejection below the 0.7000 mark, suggests that the rebound from the October 1 low at 0.6903 remains corrective in nature and leaves the broader bearish outlook firmly in place.

Daily chart indicators continue to favour the downside, with the RSI turning lower, the 14-day momentum indicator extending deeper into negative territory, and multiple bearish moving-average crossovers in play, including a recent 20-day/200-day death cross.

In the near term, the bias is expected to remain negative while the pair trades below 0.7000, with any corrective rallies likely to offer more attractive levels for renewed selling interest.

On the upside, a sustained break above 0.7000 could reduce immediate downside pressure. However, bulls would need to clear the 0.7030-0.7050 resistance zone, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7237/0.6903 move converges with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, to generate a stronger bullish signal.

Market attention now turns to the release of the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday and the US CPI report on Wednesday for fresh directional cues. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already delivered four consecutive rate increases in 2026 and is widely expected to maintain its tightening bias, while US inflation is projected to accelerate further, keeping the Federal Reserve alert amid weakening consumer sentiment and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Res: 0.7000; 0.7035; 0.7045; 0.7070
Sup: 0.6963; 0.6932; 0.6903; 0.6887