Gold trends lower, increasing the risk of a break below the 2026 low

Gold fell to its lowest level in ten weeks on Wednesday, extending its latest bearish leg after breaking decisively below the lower boundary of a descending channel that had repeatedly contained downside attempts over recent sessions.

The sharp decline, which forms part of a broader downtrend, has now entered a fourth consecutive day, bringing the key support at $4,099—the 2026 low recorded on March 23—firmly into focus.

Recent U.S. economic data reinforced the view that inflationary pressures remain persistent, while markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in the coming months. Together with last Friday’s stronger-than-expected labor market data, the outlook continues to support the U.S. dollar and weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

The recent formation of a bearish 10-day/200-day moving average crossover, commonly known as a death cross, adds to the negative signals generated by daily momentum studies and strengthens the case for a renewed test of the $4,099 support zone. However, increasingly oversold conditions may create temporary headwinds for bears as the market approaches this key level.

Any near-term corrective rebound is expected to remain limited, with the broken channel support line likely acting as initial resistance. Such recoveries could provide fresh selling opportunities within the broader bearish trend, keeping the focus on a break below $4,099 and a subsequent move toward the next support levels at $4,077, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $1,616–$5,598 advance, and the psychologically important $4,000 mark.

Res: 4236; 4285; 4303; 4366
Sup: 4099; 4077; 4000; 3928