Brent struggles to gain traction despite heightened tensions in the Middle East

Brent crude has remained confined to a $90.00–$95.00 trading range for a fifth consecutive session, despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a much larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. The market continues to view the current situation as insufficient to pose a significant threat to global oil supplies.

Although prices briefly rallied on Wednesday and Thursday amid exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran, upside momentum quickly faded. Today’s sharp reversal, which saw Brent retreat nearly $4 from intraday highs, suggests that traders are looking for a more substantial geopolitical catalyst before committing to a new directional move.

Fundamentally, the latest inventory data were supportive. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, following a 7.9 million-barrel decline in the previous week and significantly exceeding expectations for a 3 million-barrel draw. The continued depletion of commercial and strategic reserves reflects efforts to offset supply disruptions linked to partial or full closures of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for crude exports from several Gulf producers. These disruptions have contributed to the lowest oil output among OPEC members in more than two decades.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart retains a bearish bias. Momentum indicators remain negative, while moving averages are mixed. Price action continues to struggle below the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud, which has repeatedly capped recovery attempts despite several temporary breaches. As long as this resistance zone remains intact, the key upside targets at $99.00 and the psychological $100.00 level are likely to remain out of reach.

The near-term outlook therefore remains tilted to the downside, with the cloud base continuing to limit bullish attempts. However, a solid support floor has developed around the $90.00 area, where repeated downside probes have been firmly rejected. As a result, fresh attacks on this zone may encounter stronger resistance from buyers.

Nevertheless, a decisive break below the $90.00 support area would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend that originated from the $120 region and could trigger a deeper decline in the sessions ahead.

Res: 94.32; 95.50; 97.41; 98.41
Sup: 91.71; 90.76; 90.00; 89.58