Brent oil’s daily cloud support remains under threat following an unsuccessful recovery phase

Brent crude opened sharply higher on Monday after renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Israel reportedly targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and Iran responding with a wave of retaliatory strikes. However, the rally proved short-lived as market sentiment improved following Iran’s announcement that it would halt further attacks, easing concerns over a broader regional escalation.

Additional pressure came from OPEC+, which approved a fourth consecutive increase in oil production in an effort to stabilize global supply and energy markets.

Brent prices had already come under significant pressure last week, falling 4.5% across Thursday and Friday. The decline was contained by the daily Ichimoku cloud base at $93.14, which continues to act as a key support level. Previous attempts to break below this area during the May 28–June 1 period resulted in a false downside breakout, highlighting the importance of this support zone.

Technical indicators on the daily chart remain predominantly bearish and, together with softer fundamental drivers, point to the risk of another test of the cloud base. A decisive break below $93.14 would strengthen bearish momentum and expose the next downside target around the $90 region, where psychological support converges with the May 29 low and the 100-day moving average.

The near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside while prices remain below the key resistance at $98.63, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $112.70–$89.93 decline. This level has successfully capped two recent recovery attempts and continues to protect the more significant psychological barrier at $100.

That said, traders should remain cautious of another failed attempt to break below the cloud base, as sustained support at this level could keep Brent confined to an extended period of sideways trading in the near term.

Res: 97.41; 98.63; 99.70; 100.00
Sup: 93.14; 91.76; 90.81; 89.93