China’s Q3 Growth Accelerates on Strong Export Performance

Economic data released on Monday showed that China’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, rebounding from the three-year low recorded in Q2.

China’s GDP expanded by 4.5% in Q3, up from 4.3% in the previous quarter and above the 4.4% market forecast, indicating that the economy remains on track to achieve its 2026 growth target of 4.5%-5.0% following the slowdown seen in the second quarter.

However, the stronger growth was driven largely by a surge in exports. Overseas shipments jumped 36.3% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from August’s 25% increase and comfortably exceeding expectations of 25.5%. China’s trade surplus widened to $133 billion in September from $119 billion in August, according to data released last week.

The same report showed inflation remained subdued while consumer confidence continued to weaken, underscoring persistent softness in domestic demand and encouraging many businesses to rely more heavily on export markets.

Additional data released on Monday pointed to further improvements in industrial activity, with industrial production rising 5.5% in September after a 5.2% increase in August and surpassing the 5.4% forecast. Retail sales also surprised to the upside, rising 1.1%, more than double August’s 0.4% pace and well above the 0.5% consensus estimate.

Overall, the latest figures suggest that China’s economy remains on a solid recovery path and is gradually moving toward pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, growth continues to depend heavily on strong export performance, while weak domestic demand and the ongoing downturn in the property sector remain key challenges that could weigh on the economic outlook.