AUD/USD declines amid indications of a dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
AUD/USD declined on Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates steady at 4.35% but adopted a softer tone compared to its previous meeting. The RBA refrained from ruling out future policy moves, reviving speculation about a possible rate cut in February.
Recent economic data revealed unexpectedly weak third-quarter growth, while the RBA expressed confidence that inflation is on a steady path toward its target. This dovish shift in the monetary policy outlook has added pressure on the Australian dollar.
Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s release of U.S. CPI data, which is expected to further influence near-term AUD movements.
On the technical side, the daily chart maintains a firmly bearish structure. Monday’s recovery attempts were capped by the falling 10-day moving average (0.6456), forming a bull trap. The 14-day momentum indicator has remained negative for two months, moving averages are in a full bearish setup, and the recent formation of a 55/200 DMA death cross adds additional downward pressure.
Key downside targets include 0.6362 (April 19 low) and 0.6348 (2024 low posted on August 5). A break below these levels would expose 0.6300 (psychological support) and 0.6270 (2023 low).
The near-term bias remains firmly bearish as long as the price stays below the falling 10-DMA.
Res: 0.6440; 0.6456;0.6488; 0.6530
Sup: 0.6372; 0.6362; 0.6348; 0.6300
