Gold bears pause near key support zone, though downside pressure persists as geopolitics stay in focus.

Gold posted a modest recovery on Wednesday after breaking below the key $4500 support zone, marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $4099/$4889 rally and a recent higher base, reinforcing broader bearish pressure in the near term.

A combination of partial profit-taking after oversold conditions and easing concerns in the Middle East, following renewed comments from US officials about a possible peace agreement, helped slow the latest bearish wave. However, the rebound remains limited so far, with prices struggling to stage a stronger recovery from critical support levels.

The precious metal could extend gains if a lasting peace agreement materializes, as reduced geopolitical uncertainty would ease concerns over energy supply disruptions and help moderate inflation pressures, which have been one of the main drivers supporting the dollar recently.

On the other hand, any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions would likely continue to fuel inflation risks and maintain support for the US dollar. Under that scenario, a decisive break below the $4500 zone would strengthen the prevailing bearish near-term outlook and expose the next downside targets at $4401, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the 200-day moving average at $4359.

On the upside, the lower platform and the broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4587 now act as strong resistance, while the converged 10- and 20-day moving averages at $4624 are expected to cap recovery attempts.

Res: 4543; 4587; 4624; 4676
Sup: 4453; 4401; 4359; 4300