Brent Falls Below $100 on US–Iran Talks Optimism

Brent crude opened with a bearish gap and fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday at $96.88, driven by renewed optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal, although key negotiation points remain unresolved.

The decline accelerated after breaking key support levels, including the rising trendline and the 55-day moving average at $103.99 and $102.73 respectively. Prices also slipped below the psychological $100 mark and breached the daily ascending cloud, with its upper boundary at $99.56, while also breaking the Fibonacci 61.8% support at $97.23 of the $86.08–$115.26 rally.

The daily technical picture has weakened further as downside momentum builds, reinforced by a bearish crossover where the 10-day moving average has moved below the 20-day moving average, signaling increasing downside pressure.

A daily close below $100—set to be the first in over a month—would confirm the bearish signal and open the way toward the key support at $96.09 (May 7 higher low). A break below this level would expose further downside targets at $92.97 (Fibonacci 76.4%) and the psychological $90 level.

Meanwhile, some consolidation could occur above the broken $97.23 and $96.09 supports due to oversold conditions.

Any recovery attempts are expected to remain limited under prevailing fundamentals, with the broken $100 level and $100.67 (former 50% retracement) acting as strong resistance and capping upside moves.

Only a stronger rebound that fills the gap and returns price action back inside the triangle pattern would neutralize the current bearish outlook.

Res: 100.00; 100.67; 103.01; 104.64
Sup: 97.23; 96.09; 94.22; 92.97