USD/JPY Breaks Below Four-Week Range Floor on Fresh Wave of Weakness

USD/JPY came under renewed selling pressure during late Asian and early European trading on Thursday, falling around 0.8% and threatening to break below the lower boundary of its multi-day trading range after repeated failures near the daily cloud top and the 200-day moving average.

The latest decline has weakened the near-term technical structure, pushing the pair deeper into the daily Ichimoku cloud and below the daily Kijun-sen at 157.16. Focus is now shifting to the next important support at 156.68, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 152.88-159.03 advance.

Momentum indicators have also deteriorated, with the 14-day momentum oscillator slipping into negative territory, reinforcing the bearish near-term outlook. A daily close below the 157.50 area, which has acted as the floor of the recent range, would strengthen the case for further downside and keep sellers firmly in control.

A sustained break below the 156.68 Fibonacci support would add confirmation to the bearish scenario and expose the lower boundary of the daily cloud at 155.65, which represents the next significant downside target.

On the other hand, a recovery back into the established range would suggest that the latest downside move was a false breakout, potentially extending the period of sideways trading that has dominated price action in recent weeks.

For a more meaningful shift in sentiment, bulls would need to reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average and the top of the daily cloud, a move that would significantly improve the technical outlook and signal a potential return to a broader recovery trend.

Res: 157.16; 157.58; 157.88; 158.53
Sup: 156.68; 156.37; 155.96; 155.65