Gold price slips as rising tensions and firmer dollar weigh, while range holds
Gold opened sharply lower on Monday, gapping down and falling roughly $150 from Friday’s high, as market sentiment shifted again following weekend escalation that resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The renewed deterioration in geopolitical conditions erased earlier optimism and revived concerns over inflation and broader war-related risks, while stronger oil prices and a firmer dollar added further pressure to the metal.
Despite the sharp swings seen on Friday and early Monday, the broader technical picture remains largely unchanged, with prices still holding above key support at $4759, the broken 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $5419/$4099 decline, reinforced by the rising 10-day moving average. This level continues to define the lower boundary of the near-term range, now in place for a fifth consecutive session.
Near-term price action is likely to remain range-bound while the current boundaries at $4759 and $4891 (55-day moving average) remain intact. Daily indicators remain mixed, with moving averages still broadly constructive, offset by softer momentum signals and price pressure from the daily Ichimoku cloud.
Markets are now looking for a fresh catalyst from geopolitical developments, with a breakout from the current range expected to provide the next directional signal.
On the downside, a clear break below $4759 would weaken the near-term structure and expose supports at $4700, followed by $4663 (20-day moving average) and $4603, the broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the upside, a break above $4891 and nearby resistance at $4915 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would open the way toward the psychological $5000 barrier.
Res: 4871; 4891; 4915; 5000
Sup: 4759; 4700; 4663; 4603
