WTI Oil – Increasing optimism caps gains, but stronger confirmation is still lacking

WTI oil prices moved lower on Friday after repeated failures to secure a close above the key $90 resistance level, increasing pressure on near-term support at the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Price action has now traded within the cloud range, between $87.61 and $91.37, for a third consecutive session.

Growing optimism over a possible peace resolution to the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on crude, largely driven by the so-called “Trump Indicator,” after the U.S. president stated that talks between both sides were highly productive and that the war was nearing an end. However, frequent contradictions in his daily remarks continue to signal elevated volatility and underline the fragile nature of the situation, warranting caution.

From a technical perspective, the near-term structure remains under pressure, with prices continuing to track lower within a bearish channel. Negative momentum is strengthening, while the daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging and close to forming a bearish crossover.

A decisive break below the cloud base, together with the nearby 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $54.87/$119.44 rally at $87.16, would generate a fresh bearish signal and open the way toward downside targets at $84.70/$84.50, followed by $81.78 and $80.00. WTI is also on course for a second consecutive steep weekly decline, with two large bearish weekly candles adding to downside pressure.

On the other hand, continued failure to break below cloud support could keep prices trapped in a prolonged sideways range, while an eventual move back above the daily cloud would offer the first meaningful positive signal for bulls.

Res: 90.00; 91.80; 92.46; 94.27
Sup: 87.16; 84.80; 84.50; 80.00