EUR/GBP Pauses Following Two-Week Slide, Broader Bearish Trend Intact

EUR/GBP rebounded from a fresh multi-month low, its weakest level since 5 June 2025, on Tuesday as the US dollar and crude oil retreated, while firmer German inflation data for September added to the supportive backdrop.

The recovery was also driven by profit-taking following a sharp and uninterrupted two-week selloff, with oversold daily RSI conditions and a deeply negative 14-day momentum indicator, at its lowest level since early May 2025, encouraging a corrective bounce.

While oversold signals may continue to underpin near-term gains, the broader technical outlook remains firmly bearish, suggesting that any recovery is likely to be limited in scope.

The longer-term outlook remains clouded by renewed fiscal concerns in France, which many investors view as only part of a wider issue affecting several Eurozone members facing mounting budget pressures and the prospect of painful fiscal adjustments.

These challenges add to an already fragile economic environment marked by persistent energy concerns and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, factors that are expected to keep the euro under pressure.

The recent break below Fibonacci support at 0.8467, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.8222/0.8865 rally, has reinforced downside pressure and opened the way toward targets at 0.8373, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, and 0.8355, the 29 May 2025 low.

On the upside, the falling 10-day moving average at 0.8480 provides initial resistance, ahead of stronger barriers at 0.8530, where the 20-day moving average converges with the 17 August low.

Res: 0.8467; 0.8480; 0.8530; 0.8543
Sup: 0.8428; 0.8373; 0.8355; 0.8300