WTI oil prices retreated slightly from recent highs as markets paused, awaiting further clarity on potential actions from President Trump’s administration
WTI oil prices edged lower in early Monday trading, following last week’s repeated failures to break through the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud at $79.00. This created a weekly bull-trap, prompting partial profit-taking among traders.
Market focus is on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump and the executive orders he has promised to issue within his first 24 hours in office. Speculation is also growing that Trump may ease certain energy-related sanctions against Russia in an effort to push toward resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
The bullish momentum has encountered resistance near the $80 level, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the $95.00/$65.26 drop and the 200-week moving average. Additionally, a recent ceasefire in Gaza contributed to capping the rally.
Despite the pullback, the broader technical outlook remains bullish, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data from China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has improved the demand outlook for the coming months. The recent formation of a golden cross between the 10- and 200-day moving averages further underpins the positive sentiment, though waning bullish momentum suggests the potential for a deeper correction before the upward trend resumes.
Key support levels are at $76.33/$76.10 (Fibo 23.6% of the $66.54/$79.35 rise and the daily Tenkan-sen), followed by the 200-day moving average at $74.90 and the Fibo 38.2% retracement at $74.46, where deeper pullbacks are expected to find a solid base for a healthy correction.
On the upside, the recent peak at $79.35 and the $80 zone remain pivotal resistance levels. A decisive break above these barriers would target $83.64 (Fibo 61.8% of $95.00/$65.26) and $84.50 (June 30 lower top).
Res: 78.53; 79.00; 79.35; 80.00
Sup: 76.33; 76.10; 74.90; 74.46