USDJPY – Bears Pause Ahead of Key US Events, with Daily Cloud Base Acting as Strong Resistance

USDJPY maintains a constructive tone and edges higher on Tuesday, as safe-haven demand unexpectedly cools following President Trump’s latest round of tariffs on metal imports.

Investors are also in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today and Wednesday’s US inflation report for January, which are expected to provide further insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

The short-term downtrend from the 2025 peak at 158.87 (Jan 10) has found temporary support at a key Fibonacci level (38.2% of 139.57/158.87 at 151.50), forming a potential base.

So far, the rebound appears to be a mild correction, as daily technical indicators remain bearish. Recovery attempts face strong resistance at 152.77 (converging 100/200DMA) and 153.40 (daily Ichimoku cloud base, reinforced by Tenkan-sen).

As long as these resistance levels cap the upside, broader bearish pressure is expected to persist, keeping the risk of fresh weakness in play. A sustained break below 151.50 (Fibo support) and 150.93 (last week’s low) would confirm a bearish continuation.

Additionally, last week’s large bearish weekly candle adds to the downside risk, with the pair in the red for four consecutive weeks and selling pressure accelerating recently.

Res: 152.77; 153.40; 153.96; 154.90
Sup: 151.50; 150.93; 150.00; 149.22