GOLD – Bulls regain momentum as focus shifts to US jobs data for short-term direction

Gold surged on Thursday, gaining around 0.85% and recovering most of its recent pullback from the new all-time high of $2531. The decline found strong support at the $2470 level, where a higher base is forming.

The precious metal remains buoyed by strong physical demand from central banks and governments, along with safe-haven buying driven by growing concerns over slowing economic growth and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Adding to gold’s bullish outlook are strong signals that the US Federal Reserve may begin easing its monetary policy this month. Recent US data (JOLTS and ADP reports) suggest that the labor market is losing momentum, increasing the likelihood of more aggressive action from the Fed. Bets for a 0.5% rate cut, rather than the widely expected 0.25%, are rising ahead of the September policy meeting.

Markets are now focused on the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will offer clearer insight into the state of the labor market and guide the Fed’s next move.

The technical outlook for gold is also improving. The long lower wicks of the past two daily candles indicate strong buying interest, with a move back above the psychological $2500 level (also near the daily Tenkan-sen) and a retracement of more than 76.4% of the $2531/$2471 pullback, signaling that the corrective phase may be over.

Near-term momentum has shifted to the upside, but the NFP report on Friday will be key in determining the next direction. A disappointing jobs report could push gold towards a retest of its record high, while stronger-than-expected numbers might dampen the bullish sentiment.

The $2500 level provides solid support, with the $2470 zone as the next key level below. On the upside, a break above $2531 could trigger a fresh rally into uncharted territory.

Res: 2523; 2531; 2545; 2554
Sup: 2500; 2494; 2485; 2470