EUR/USD seeks fresh direction from fundamentals amid mixed technical signals

EUR/USD is consolidating below its new one-week high, reached after a 0.8% jump on Thursday.

The recent advance broke through the Fibonacci resistance at 1.0563 (38.2% of 1.0936/1.0332), following a recovery last week that stalled at this level, despite a weekly close above 1.0563.

Technical signals on the daily chart are mixed, with the 14-day momentum moving into negative territory and conflicting moving averages. However, these are counterbalanced by a developing positive signal on the weekly chart, following a bear trap below the 1.0405 Fibonacci level (50% retracement of 0.9535/1.1275) and the subsequent bounce.

For a confirmed bullish signal, EUR/USD will need not only a repeat weekly close above 1.0563 but also a rise above the previous recovery top at 1.0593, followed by a breach of the next key barrier at 1.0634 (50% retracement and daily Kijun-sen).

If upside failure persists, the downside remains vulnerable. A close below 1.0563 would weaken the near-term structure, increasing the risk of testing the lower pivot at 1.0511 (daily Tenkan-sen), and a loss of this level would signal further bearish movement.

From a fundamental perspective, the unexpected decline in German industrial production for October and Eurozone Q3 GDP meeting forecasts had limited impact on the euro. The focus now shifts to the US NFP data for a potential stronger directional signal.

Res: 1.0597; 1.0609; 1.0634; 1.0682
Sup: 1.0563; 1.0511; 1.0475; 1.0424