Crude Prices Climb as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Raise Supply Concerns, $100 Remains Out of Reach

Brent crude rebounded from a three-and-a-half-week low on Wednesday as renewed concerns over a potential deadlock in US-Iran negotiations revived supply worries, offsetting positive developments from recovering Middle Eastern exports. According to Goldman Sachs, regional oil exports doubled in September, reaching the average levels recorded throughout 2025.

The front-month Brent December contract climbed toward $99 per barrel, while the November contract traded around $103.15, creating the widest spread between the two contracts in four months. The divergence reflects market expectations that a potential US ban on diesel exports could lead to oversupply and help ease price pressures.

Despite the rebound, Brent remains below the key $100-per-barrel level for a second consecutive session, reinforcing a bearish near-term outlook. Negative momentum continues to build on the daily chart following Tuesday’s formation of a 10/20-day moving average bearish crossover, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside.

A potential bullish engulfing pattern is emerging on Wednesday’s chart, which could provide some support to prices. However, a sustained move above the $100 threshold is needed to confirm the signal and improve the technical outlook.

On a broader horizon, Brent remains on track for a third straight monthly gain, supporting the longer-term bullish narrative. Nevertheless, the appearance of a long upper shadow on the monthly candle signals growing selling pressure and warrants caution despite the positive monthly performance.

Res: 100.00; 100.65; 101.53; 102.30
Sup: 95.10; 93.94; 93.50; 92.00