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Technical Outlook

Dollar Index – Bulls Stay Supported by Strong Safe-Haven Demand, Break Above Key $100 Resistance…

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 13, 2026

The US dollar maintains a firm tone and remains on track to register a second consecutive week of strong gains, benefiting from its role as a primary safe-haven asset amid rising global risk aversion. The surge in oil prices triggered by…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – Bulls Maintain Control, Focus Shifts Toward Key Barriers Near 160

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 11, 2026

USDJPY maintains a firm tone and is approaching Monday’s peak at 158.89, after the broader uptrend from the February 12 low at 152.26 was only briefly interrupted by a shallow correction between 158.89 and 157.27 during Monday and Tuesday.…
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Technical Outlook

Oil Extends Decline on Emerging Signs of Improvement

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 10, 2026

WTI crude extended its pullback from Monday’s three-and-a-half-year peak at $119.44 on Tuesday, following a sharp and unexpected shift in market sentiment after President Donald Trump suggested that the war in the Middle East could end…
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Technical Outlook

Oil Prices Spike Toward $120 as Escalating War Clouds Supply Outlook and Signals Risk of Deeper…

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 9, 2026

In a scenario widely anticipated by the market, WTI crude opened the week with a significant upward gap, surging to nearly $120 per barrel — its highest level since mid-2022. Rising concerns over prolonged supply disruptions continue to…
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Economy

US Nonfarm Payrolls Decline Sharply in February

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 6, 2026

US Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92K in February, compared with a downwardly revised increase of 126K in January, while economists had anticipated a gain of 50K. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January,…
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Technical Outlook

Crude Oil heads for its largest weekly rally in four years, with the psychological $100 level coming…

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 6, 2026

WTI crude oil surged above $86 per barrel on Friday, extending its sharp rally into a fifth consecutive session and putting the market on track for its strongest weekly advance since early 2022, when the conflict in Ukraine first erupted.…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY resumes broader bullish momentum after a shallow pullback

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 5, 2026

USDJPY advanced on Thursday after the recent pullback from a new multi-week high at 157.96 (Mar 3) was contained by the rising 10DMA at 156.34. Price action on Thursday has so far formed a Hammer candle on the daily chart, suggesting a…
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Technical Outlook

Gold Recovers After Tuesday’s Decline, Maintaining Broad Bullish Structure Above $5000

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 4, 2026

Gold edged higher on Wednesday, gaining 1.6% in Asian and European trading, following a more than 4% drop on Tuesday. The yellow metal had come under pressure from a stronger US dollar, driven by increased safe-haven demand and reduced…
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Technical Outlook

Crude Oil Prices Rally Sharply Amid Escalating US–Iran Tensions

Ahmad Elbasioni Mar 2, 2026

WTI oil opened Monday with a sharp $6 upside gap after hostilities between Israel, the United States, and Iran erupted over the weekend. The front-month contract surged to $73.35 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $67.30, marking its…
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Technical Outlook

Gold Surges Beyond $5200, Poised for Seventh Straight Monthly Advance

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 27, 2026

Gold advanced sharply in early US trading on Friday after moving within a tight range through the Asian and European sessions, as buyers regained momentum following a three-day consolidation beneath the February 24 recovery peak at $5249.…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Oil – Sharp Pullback Followed by Swift Rebound Signals Healthy Correction Before Renewed Upside…

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 26, 2026

WTI oil prices dropped sharply on Thursday, sliding more than 3% to their lowest level in over a week, after an unexpected and substantial build in US crude inventories weighed heavily on market sentiment. Data released on Wednesday…
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Economy

German Consumer Sentiment Seen Deteriorating Further in March – GfK

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 25, 2026

A survey published on Wednesday by the Nuremberg-based market research institute GfK indicated that German consumer sentiment is expected to deteriorate further in March, as households remain cautious amid a challenging geopolitical…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD Supported by Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation, Though Dovish RBA Governor Caps Upside…

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 25, 2026

AUDUSD climbed to a two-week peak at 0.7116 in early Wednesday trading, supported by the release of Australia’s latest CPI figures. Inflation remained elevated in January, holding steady at 3.8% year-on-year, while core inflation printed…
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Technical Outlook

Japanese Yen Slides Nearly 1% Amid Renewed Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 24, 2026

USDJPY advanced 0.9% on Tuesday after Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi voiced concerns over further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, a stance that contrasts with broad market expectations for borrowing costs to rise toward 1% in the…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Oil – Bulls Maintain Control Amid Escalating Supply Disruption Fears

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 24, 2026

WTI oil maintains a firm stance, trading just below its fresh multi-month peak at $67.27, with Monday’s long upper shadow having only a limited dampening effect. The formation resulted from a brief spike to a new high followed by a swift…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD drops to a three-week low amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff developments.

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 23, 2026

Bitcoin remains under pressure on Monday, hovering just above a fresh three-week low as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy continues to weigh on sentiment. The latest leg lower has broken below the key 65.5K/65K support zone,…
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Technical Outlook

Gold breaks above the upper boundary of its recent trading range, triggering a renewed bullish…

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 23, 2026

Gold extended its advance from the $4850 zone, establishing a higher base and marking a fourth consecutive day of gains, as prices climbed to their highest level since January 30 in early Monday trading. A renewed wave of safe-haven…
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Economy

U.S. economic growth decelerated sharply in the fourth quarter, falling significantly short of…

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 20, 2026

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025, marking a sharp slowdown from the 4.4% growth recorded in the third quarter. The reading fell well short of expectations for a 2.8% increase,…
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Economy

UK unemployment rises to highest level in years while pay growth slows, boosting rate-cut bets.

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 17, 2026

UK labor market data released on Tuesday came in weaker than expected, disappointing markets but strengthening investor expectations for an interest rate cut as early as next month. The unemployment rate in the three months to the end of…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – downside momentum stalls after almost 3% loss this week

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 16, 2026

USDJPY rebounded on Monday as partial profit-taking followed last week’s nearly 3% decline, the steepest weekly drop since November 2024. The yen’s recent strength was driven by a softer US dollar and improving sentiment after Prime…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – sideways bias dominates near-term trading between $4900 and $5100

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 16, 2026

Gold prices edged slightly lower early Monday but remained confined to a narrow range amid subdued trading volumes, with markets in the Far East and the United States closed for holidays. The metal has fluctuated within the $4900–$5100…
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Economy

January US inflation undershoots forecasts, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 13, 2026

US inflation rose by 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% increase in December. On an annual basis, consumer prices advanced 2.4%, marking a notable slowdown from December’s 2.7% pace and coming in below expectations for a 2.5%…
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Economy

January sees US employment growth pick up sharply, defying expectations – NFP report

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 11, 2026

The US January labor report, released Wednesday, showed an unexpected acceleration in job growth alongside a drop in unemployment, providing temporary relief for the Federal Reserve. The stronger-than-expected numbers suggest that the…
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Technical Outlook

EURCHF – bears consolidate above fresh 11-year low, pivotal 0.90 support under pressure

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 11, 2026

EURCHF is consolidating just below the fresh multi-year low at 0.9094, the weakest level since January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank scrapped its 1.20 CHF per euro floor. The low was recorded on Tuesday and keeps the broader bearish…
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Technical Outlook

Yen strengthens further after the election, advancing beyond critical chart levels

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 10, 2026

USDJPY extended its sharp decline for a second consecutive session, retreating further from the February 9 lower high at 157.65, as the Japanese yen rallied following Prime Minister Takaichi’s election victory. The outcome…
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Technical Outlook

Dow Jones – investors consolidate after the index surpasses 50,000 for the first time

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 9, 2026

The Dow eased slightly from Monday’s new record high of 50,337 but remained firm, holding above the key 50,000 level breached last Friday after a 2.7% surge—the largest single-day gain since April 9, 2025. The index outperformed its major…
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Economy

Eurozone investor morale improves markedly in February, surpassing projections

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 9, 2026

Eurozone investor morale strengthened markedly in February, reaching its highest level since July 2025, according to the Sentix survey released on Monday. The index unexpectedly jumped to 4.2 points in February, rebounding from a 1.8 point…
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Economy

U.S. private payroll growth falls well short of expectations – ADP

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 4, 2026

The ADP private payrolls report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private-sector job growth came in well below expectations in January, largely due to employment declines in professional and business services as well as manufacturing.…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – rebound above $5,000 strengthens the short-term outlook and lifts market optimism

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 4, 2026

Gold climbed back above the $5,000 mark on Wednesday, as the recovery stretched into a second straight session after surging nearly 6% on Tuesday — the strongest single-day gain in years. The brief easing in geopolitical tensions, which…
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Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia hikes interest rates by 0.25% amid ongoing inflationary pressures

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 3, 2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the rate from 3.60% to 3.85% in a unanimous decision that was widely expected. This marks the RBA’s first rate hike in two years, coming just six months…
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Technical Outlook

WTI OIL – repeated bounce off key support suggests pullback from multi-month high may have ended

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 3, 2026

WTI crude extended its pullback from the recent multi-month high of $66.46 during early Tuesday trading, following a gap-lower opening at the start of the week and Monday’s sharp 4% decline, marking the largest single-day drop since…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – despite today’s sharp rebound, the downside remains highly exposed

Ahmad Elbasioni Feb 2, 2026

Gold extended its steep decline, falling to a one-month low after Monday’s session opened with a roughly $100 gap down, indicating that negative sentiment from Friday’s largest daily drop in over forty years remains entrenched. Easing…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – sharp two-day retreat breaks $5,000 support, but broader bullish trend intact

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 30, 2026

Gold briefly slipped below the key $5,000 support on Friday, extending a dramatic two-day drop of over $600. As noted in yesterday’s commentary, the risk of a pullback had risen after the yellow metal posted nine consecutive days of…
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Technical Outlook

WTI crude climbs to a four-month peak amid supply worries

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 28, 2026

WTI crude extended its gains on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s 2.9% rally to reach a four-month high near $63.50. The advance was driven by a softer U.S. dollar, disruptions to U.S. crude production caused by a severe winter storm, and…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD climbs to a new record, surpassing $5,300

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 28, 2026

Gold surged past the $5,300 mark, reaching a new record high of $5,311 early Wednesday, extending its steep and uninterrupted rally. The metal has been moving at unprecedented speed, hitting successive round-number levels in less than 25…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY extends its sharp decline into a third consecutive day, breaking a key support level

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 27, 2026

USDJPY remains in a steep decline for a third straight day, falling nearly 4% amid speculation that intervention may be contributing to the move, alongside rising safe-haven demand and month-end flows. The downside extended further on…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – bulls near the 1.20 barrier

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 27, 2026

The euro remains firm, holding near a fresh multi-month high of 1.1907 reached on Monday, following last week’s strong rally and a gap-higher opening at the start of this week. The recent advance was mainly driven by a weaker U.S.…
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Technical Outlook

Silver accelerates upward after Friday’s breach of the $100 psychological level

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 26, 2026

Silver extended its gains above the psychological $100 level, which was breached on Friday when the market closed at $103.23, and surged to a new all-time high well above $111 on Monday. The metal has been strongly supported by a sharp…
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Technical Outlook

Gold surges past the crucial $5,000 barrier and breaks $5,100 as uncertainty intensifies

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 26, 2026

Gold cleared the $5,000 barrier in a single move on Monday, as widely anticipated following weekend developments. It then surprised traders by extending the rally to $5,100 within just a few hours of early trading. The metal opened with…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – bulls step up pressure on the $5,000 milestone

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 23, 2026

In one of my daily briefings earlier this week, I was asked whether gold is likely to reach $5,000. My response was that this could happen as early as today (Friday) or sometime next week. Given the persistently supportive conditions, it…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD extends gains following stronger-than-expected labor data

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 22, 2026

The AUDUSD rally extended into a fourth consecutive day, climbing from the broader support zone around 0.6665 and reaching its highest level since late September 2024 on Thursday at 0.6811. The Australian dollar gained momentum as the…
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Technical Outlook

Gold surges as Greenland tensions escalate, eyeing $5,000 target

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 21, 2026

Gold reached a new record high of $4,888 on Wednesday, drawing even closer to the psychologically important $5,000 level, which appears increasingly likely to be challenged soon if current market conditions persist. The yellow metal’s…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar weakens broadly as new tariff threats shake markets

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 19, 2026

Fresh flows into safe-haven assets followed President Trump’s latest signals about additional tariffs on several EU countries, weakening market sentiment and adding pressure on the US dollar. The dollar index opened roughly 40 points…
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Technical Outlook

Gold surges to a fresh all-time high as markets reel from Trump’s latest decisions

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 19, 2026

Gold opened with a strong upside gap and posted a fresh record high at $4690 on Monday, after President Trump unsettled markets over the weekend by threatening additional tariffs on several EU countries. European leaders began preparing…
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Technical Outlook

Gold Moderates on Reduced Geopolitical Pressure, While Bulls Maintain Grip

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 15, 2026

Gold edged lower on Thursday after posting a series of marginally higher highs over the past three days ($4,630/$4,634/$4,643). Calmer rhetoric from President Trump regarding the Iran crisis and his conflict with Fed Chair Powell eased…
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Technical Outlook

Silver Surges to New Record High, Approaches $90, Sets Sights on $100

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 13, 2026

Silver extended its upward trend on Tuesday, hitting a new all-time high of $89.10 after gaining nearly $6 for the day, despite warnings from overbought daily technical indicators. The metal continues to benefit from rising safe-haven…
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Technical Outlook

Oil Prices Extend Gains on Iran Uncertainty and Tightening Supply Outlook

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 13, 2026

WTI crude extended its strong rally into a fourth consecutive day, driven by rising tensions in Iran and fears of potential supply disruptions. Adding to market uncertainty, President Trump recently threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – short-term charts remain under downward pressure

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 13, 2026

The Euro traded cautiously on Tuesday following Monday’s bounce, which temporarily eased pressure on larger bearish positions from the 1.1808 peak. Daily candlestick patterns offered mixed signals, with a bullish engulfing offset by strong…
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Technical Outlook

Silver Hits Record High Amid Rising Safe-Haven and Industrial Demand

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 12, 2026

Silver surged to a new all-time high on Monday, following a gain of over 6%, as fresh shockwaves from a criminal probe targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the Trump administration rattled markets and drove investors toward safe-haven…
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Technical Outlook

Gold Breaks Previous Records, Reaches $4,600

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 12, 2026

Gold surged to a new all-time high of $4,600 in early Monday trading, amid escalating political tensions in the United States. The latest clash between President Trump’s administration and Fed Chair Powell, over a criminal probe targeting…
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Economy

December NFP Shows Slower U.S. Job Expansion

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 9, 2026

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of the forecasted 66,000 and following a downwardly revised gain of 56,000 in November (previously reported at 64,000). The unemployment rate, however, declined to…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – upcoming daily Ichimoku twist points to additional downside

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 8, 2026

The Euro continues its downward leg from the December 24 peak at 1.1808, where the larger rally had been capped by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1918–1.1468 range. The pair is now attempting to establish itself below the critical…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD struggles to break above key $94K range ceiling

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 7, 2026

Bitcoin extended its losses for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, tracking weakness seen across many traditional safe-haven assets. The downside intensified after repeated rejections at key resistance around $94,000, which aligns with…
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Technical Outlook

Gold breaks above $4,500, poised for further gains amid renewed geopolitical tensions

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 7, 2026

Gold prices softened in early Wednesday trading as some investors took profits after a three‑day rally that pushed the metal above the key psychological $4,500 level. The recent pullback found support near the $4,300 area, where the…
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Technical Outlook

WTI oil retests pivotal barriers on Venezuela uncertainty

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 6, 2026

WTI oil rose further on Tuesday, following US action in Venezuela, which caused uncertainty over country’s oil production and boosted demand. Although it is still early to estimate what consequences will US unprecedented action cause on…
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Technical Outlook

USD Index – bulls consolidate control ahead of key US economic data releases

Ahmad Elbasioni Jan 5, 2026

The dollar index opened the week with a bullish gap and advanced to a three-and-a-half-week high on Monday, maintaining a firm tone at the start of the new year. Heightened uncertainty surrounding the US attack on Venezuela supported…
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Technical Outlook

Gold reaches a new all-time peak, surpassing $4,400 per ounce

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 22, 2025

Here’s a polished and professional rewrite of your text: Gold surged to a new record high, climbing above the $4,400 per ounce mark following an early Monday rally of 1.8%, pushing prices further into uncharted territory. The…
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Technical Outlook

EURJPY surges to a fresh record high

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 19, 2025

EURJPY surged to a fresh all-time high after a 1.1% jump in post-BoJ policy decision trading. The Japanese yen weakened broadly despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%—the highest level in three…
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Central Banks

Bank of England delivers a 25-basis-point interest rate cut

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 18, 2025

The Bank of England reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering it from 4.00% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations, while signaling a potential slowdown in the pace of future cuts. Data released on Wednesday…
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Technical Outlook

Gold maintains bullish control, aiming to retest fresh record high

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 17, 2025

Gold rebounded from the key $4300 support zone, which had successfully contained declines over the past three sessions, and is on track for a fourth consecutive daily close above this level, reinforcing the positive outlook. Renewed…
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Technical Outlook

Silver rallies to fresh all-time high, eyes psychological $70 mark

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 17, 2025

Silver surged over 4% on Wednesday, reaching a new record high of $66.51, fueled by renewed demand for precious metals following US data that indicated further weakness in the labor market, boosting expectations of a more dovish Fed stance.…
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Technical Outlook

Cable maintains bullish control as markets await key US economic data

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 16, 2025

Cable surged past the 1.3400 level on Tuesday morning, supported by stronger-than-expected preliminary December Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which offset weaker labor data. Sterling remains firm, holding just below a near two-month…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – bulls remain firmly in control, extending the rally above the thick daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 15, 2025

The Euro maintains a firm stance at the start of the week, hovering near the multi-week high of 1.1762 reached last Thursday. Bulls remain in control, testing the previously broken Fibo barrier at 1.1746 (61.8% of 1.1918/1.1468) and…
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Technical Outlook

Gold extends its strong momentum and sets sights on another test of its record high

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 12, 2025

Gold climbed to its highest level in nearly two months on Friday after decisively breaking above the recent range ceiling at $4264, reaffirming the continuation of the recovery leg from the $3886 low of Oct 28 and pushing through the…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD pushes higher as the post-Fed rally continues to gain momentum

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 11, 2025

The Euro holds a firm tone and extends its climb to a seven-week high on Thursday, building on Wednesday’s 0.6% post-Fed jump that accelerated bullish momentum. The currency continues to draw support from the Fed’s rate cut and the…
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Central Banks

Fed lowers rates as anticipated, signals pause in further easing

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 11, 2025

The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as widely anticipated, but signaled a likely pause in early 2026, awaiting clearer indications from the labor market and persistent inflation pressures. The…
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Technical Outlook

Silver surged past $60 to a new record high, supported by robust industrial demand and continued…

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 10, 2025

Silver surged to a new record high of $61.59 on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s strong rally that posted a 4.5% daily gain and broke through the psychological $60 barrier. The metal continues to benefit from robust safe-haven demand…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar index holds steady in subdued trading ahead of key Fed policy decision

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 10, 2025

The dollar index’s recovery from the 98.70 daily higher base (bottom of pullback from the 100.32 peak) slowed on Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – recovery gathers pace, shifting attention to key near-term resistance levels

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 8, 2025

The rebound extends into a third consecutive session and picked up momentum on Monday, rising about 2.2% by mid-European trade, as fresh bullish signals emerged following a break above the bear-channel upper boundary at 90,700 and the 38.2%…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD extends its rally for the eleventh consecutive session

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 5, 2025

AUDUSD extends its steep uptrend for the eleventh consecutive session and remains on course for a second weekly advance, supported primarily by broad dollar weakness amid rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, while also maintaining a firm…
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Technical Outlook

Cable jumps higher on weaker-than-expected US ADP payrolls

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 3, 2025

Cable surged to a fresh five-week high on Wednesday, initially supported by stronger-than-expected UK November services PMI, while a sharper-than-anticipated decline in US private payrolls (ADP report) fueled bets for a Fed rate cut in…
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Economy

US private sector payrolls saw a sharp decline in November, according to ADP data

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 3, 2025

The ADP employment report revealed an unexpected decline in US private payrolls, with a drop of 32K in November, compared to an upwardly revised 47K increase in October (previously 42K) and a consensus expectation of a 5K gain. The…
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Economy

Eurozone services sector growth strengthened further in November – PMI

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 3, 2025

Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks performance of both, manufacturing and services sector, and indicates overall economic health, rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October, marking its sixth monthly…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD holds a constructive tone, though the thick descending daily cloud continues to act as a…

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 2, 2025

The Euro maintains a firm tone on Tuesday after the latest recovery pushed the pair to a two-week high at 1.1652, though the swift pullback that followed signaled strong upside rejection, reflected in a daily candle with a pronounced upper…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar slides amid rising rate cut expectations and weak US economic data

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 1, 2025

The dollar index came under renewed pressure on Monday, falling to a two-week low as bets for a Fed rate cut in December gained traction. Market participants are awaiting key US labor data, which could influence the central bank’s policy…
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Technical Outlook

Gold pushes to a new multi-week high as rising Fed rate-cut expectations and a softer dollar fuel…

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 1, 2025

Gold extended its upward trend on Monday, reaching a six-week high, driven by growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. Weak US economic data, combined with recent dovish remarks from Fed policymakers, fueled renewed bets on…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – sellers reassert control following a brief corrective bounce

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 1, 2025

BTCUSD slumped sharply in early Monday trading, losing around 6% by the mid-European session, retracing more than half of the 80514/93052 rebound and indicating that the corrective phase off the eight-month low at 80514 may have run its…
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Technical Outlook

Silver extends gains following Friday’s strong rally, reaching a fresh record high

Ahmad Elbasioni Dec 1, 2025

Silver pushed further into uncharted territory, reaching a new record high of $57.84 in early Monday trading, extending Friday’s strong rally—the largest daily gain in nearly eight months at 5.6%—which broke and closed above the previous…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY pulls back following verbal intervention signals

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 21, 2025

USDJPY retreated from a fresh ten-month high on Friday following comments from top Japanese officials that fueled expectations of potential intervention, as the yen had weakened sharply in recent weeks and approached levels where the…
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Technical Outlook

Gold drops sharply as expectations for a Fed rate cut in December continue to cool

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 14, 2025

Gold surrendered more than 3% on Friday, following hawkish comments from Fed officials that further dampened expectations for a December rate cut, pushing probabilities below 50% after they had been above 80% on Thursday and over 90% just…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD continues its sharp decline, plunging decisively below the key psychological support at…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 14, 2025

BTCUSD remains in a sharp downtrend for the fourth consecutive day, with Thursday and early Friday seeing accelerated selling driven by broader risk-off sentiment. Traders are cautious amid the absence of key economic data due to the…
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Technical Outlook

EURJPY surges to a new record high, but intervention risks loom large

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 13, 2025

EURJPY extended its strong uptrend, reaching new record highs as the yen remained under pressure following dovish remarks from Japan’s Prime Minister, whose administration signaled a preference for maintaining low interest rates.…
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Technical Outlook

Gold pauses after recent surge, but bullish momentum stays intact above $4100

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 12, 2025

Gold remains in a consolidation phase for the second day, as bulls pause following Monday’s strong rally that broke key resistance levels and generated fresh bullish signals. Limited profit-taking has kept the price supported above…
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Technical Outlook

EURGBP poised to resume its uptrend following a brief corrective pullback

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 12, 2025

Fresh bullish momentum extended for the second straight day from a new higher base at 0.8765, bringing EURGBP just shy of its 2025 peak at 0.8829 posted last week. The move signals a likely completion of the recent four-day 0.8829/0.8765…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY climbed to a fresh multi-month high, but prospects of potential FX intervention keep traders…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 12, 2025

USDJPY surged on Wednesday, propelled by a break above recent multi-tops at 148.50, triggering stops and lifting the pair to its highest level since early February. The pair gained 0.45% in Wednesday morning trade, as the break above the…
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Technical Outlook

USD Index extends losses amid rising rate-cut expectations and firmer gold prices

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 11, 2025

The dollar index extended its decline for a fourth consecutive day, continuing the pullback that followed its inability to decisively break the key psychological 100 level and a bear trap at the falling 200DMA, which now reinforces…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD makes another attempt to break through key Fibonacci resistance

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 11, 2025

The Euro maintains a constructive tone and once again tests the key Fibonacci resistance at 1.1570 (38.2% retracement of the 1.1728/1.1468 decline), as the recovery from 1.1468 was strengthened by a bear-trap formation on the weekly chart,…
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Technical Outlook

Gold surged more than 2% on Monday, delivering the first signs that its corrective phase may be…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 10, 2025

Gold jumped over 2% at the start of the week, briefly surpassing the $4100 mark, improving the near-term outlook and reducing immediate downside risk. The rally was fueled by weaker-than-expected US economic data, which pressured the…
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Technical Outlook

Gold holds steady near the $4,000 level but continues to lack clear directional cues.

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 7, 2025

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, marking a second attempt to decisively break above key resistance levels at $3986, representing the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, and the psychological barrier at $4000. This comes after…
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Technical Outlook

GBPUSD – modest advance after BoE holds interest rates steady

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 6, 2025

The pound jumped above the 1.31 level after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, but later trimmed gains following signals that policymakers may consider a rate cut at the December meeting. This potential…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar Index – bulls may pause for consolidation after breaking key resistance levels at the…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 5, 2025

The dollar index maintains a firm tone, supported by renewed risk aversion, and managed to break above the key psychological level of 100 — which also marks the former August 1 top — along with the nearby falling 200-day moving average at…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Oil – sellers reclaim control amid demand worries; focus turns to reaction at key $60 support…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 4, 2025

WTI oil prices stayed in the red for the second consecutive session, pressured by renewed demand concerns after weak manufacturing data and OPEC+’s decision to pause production increases in early 2026, while the strong dollar added further…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – bulls take a breather in tight consolidation, awaiting a fresh directional cue

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 3, 2025

Bulls started to lose momentum, and the pair entered a sideways consolidation over the past two sessions after strong post-Fed and BoJ rallies pushed the price above the bull-channel’s upper boundary and the descending trendline connecting…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – bears maintain control, with consolidation likely before a potential break below the key…

Ahmad Elbasioni Nov 3, 2025

The Euro remained under pressure at the start of the week, trending lower and testing the 1.1500 support area (a round number level and the 50% retracement of the 1.1065–1.1918 rally) during early Monday trading. The current bearish leg,…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY jumps to multi-month high following Fed and BoJ policy announcements

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 30, 2025

USDJPY surged 1.2% in post-BoJ trading on Thursday, reaching its highest level since mid-February. The rally gained momentum after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone than expected on Wednesday, and extended further following…
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Technical Outlook

EURGBP climbed to its highest level in more than two years as growing expectations of a dovish shift…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 29, 2025

EURGBP extended its advance to a new 2025 peak on Wednesday, holding at its strongest levels since May 2023. The rally, now in its sixth consecutive session, continues to draw momentum from renewed sterling weakness driven by shifting…
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Technical Outlook

GBPUSD extends sharp losses as expectations for a Bank of England rate cut increase

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 29, 2025

Cable extended its sharp decline on Wednesday, hitting a three-month low as the strong bearish leg that began after rejection at the daily cloud continued for a second straight week. Fresh selling pressure pushed the pair below the key…
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Technical Outlook

WTI oil falls 2% amid signs of additional OPEC+ output increase

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 28, 2025

WTI oil extended losses for the third consecutive session, accelerating its decline on Tuesday and shedding around 2% during Asian and early European trading hours. The earlier rally driven by U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil…
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Economy

German consumer confidence declines further in November

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 28, 2025

A GfK survey released on Tuesday indicated that German consumer sentiment is expected to weaken further heading into November, pressured by a sharp decline in income expectations. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped to -24.1 for…
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Technical Outlook

Renewed risk appetite boosts the Australian dollar to a two-week high

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 27, 2025

AUDUSD opened with an upside gap and climbed nearly 1% in early Monday trading, reaching its highest level in two weeks. Renewed risk appetite at the start of the week, driven by growing optimism over a potential US-China trade…
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Economy

US inflation increases slightly below expectations, reinforcing market bets on a Federal Reserve…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 24, 2025

US inflation rose 0.3% in September, slightly below the 0.4% forecast, following a 0.4% increase in August. On an annual basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.0%, compared with market expectations of a 3.1% rise and a 2.9% gain in…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – bulls maintain control, testing key resistance levels ahead of US inflation data

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 24, 2025

USDJPY extends its advance for the sixth consecutive session on Friday, with the fresh bullish leg that started from last week’s correction low at 149.37 breaking through the key psychological barrier at 153.00. The pair maintains a firm…
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Technical Outlook

Crude oil surges 3% after the United States imposes sanctions on major Russian oil exporters

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 23, 2025

WTI oil opened with an upside gap and advanced nearly 3% during Asian and early European trading on Thursday, driven by President Trump’s decision to impose sanctions on two major Russian oil suppliers. The move coincides with a new EU…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – downside bias persists while trading below daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 23, 2025

The Euro softened in early Thursday trading, signaling that near-term bears from the 1.1728 lower top (Oct 17) are regaining control after Wednesday’s brief and limited recovery attempt. The pair remains firmly below the relatively thick…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – downside remains exposed after bears broke through key $4000 support

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 22, 2025

Gold remains in volatile mode, with sharp price swings continuing since late last night’s update, keeping both bullish and bearish scenarios in play. A brief wave of optimism followed Tuesday’s close above $4100, but subsequent gains…
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Technical Outlook

GBPUSD – maintains bearish bias while trading below the expanding daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 21, 2025

The pound remained under pressure for the third consecutive session, with fresh weakness on Tuesday reinforcing developing negative signals on the daily chart. Friday’s failed break above the daily cloud left a Doji candle with a…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – conflicting signals persist as the pair trades within the daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 20, 2025

The Euro stayed under pressure on Monday, though losses remained limited, following Friday’s sharp upside rejection that left a bearish daily candle with a long upper shadow and created a bull-trap at the top of the daily cloud, signaling…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – recovery extends for a second day, though upside momentum may stall below daily cloud…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 20, 2025

BTCUSD extended its recovery for the second consecutive session, breaking above the 111K barrier after another strong downside rejection, when Friday’s brief dip below the ascending 200DMA and test of the 103500 zone failed to find…
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Technical Outlook

Gold is consolidating following Friday’s 2% decline, with the bullish outlook expected to stay…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 20, 2025

Gold traded in a narrow consolidation range on Monday, following a nearly 2% retreat from Friday’s new record high at $4380, triggered by President Trump’s unexpected remarks suggesting that the latest tariffs on Chinese imports would not…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar index – pullback encounters strong support at key technical level

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 16, 2025

The dollar extended losses for the third consecutive session, pressured by the escalating US-China trade conflict and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, which reinforced strong market expectations for two rate cuts before year-end.…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY extends its pullback on growing rate cut expectations, though key support levels remain…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 15, 2025

USDJPY extended its decline on Wednesday as dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell reinforced expectations for rate cuts in October and December, keeping the dollar under pressure. Fresh bearish momentum drove the pair to a one-week low,…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – fresh rebound requires daily cloud break to improve near-term outlook

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 15, 2025

The Euro edged higher in early Wednesday trading, supported by a weaker dollar after Fed Chair Powell’s latest remarks were interpreted as dovish, reinforcing market expectations for two rate cuts before year-end. Fresh upside momentum…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – bulls pause briefly below the new record high

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 14, 2025

Gold surged past the $4100 barrier on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high at $4179 and now testing the next key psychological resistance at $4200. The latest escalation in the US–China trade conflict, following reciprocal special taxes…
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Technical Outlook

Silver hits a new record high, supported by robust safe-haven demand and mounting concerns over…

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 13, 2025

Silver surged to new record highs on Monday, extending its sharp uptrend that has accelerated over the past few sessions. The metal’s decisive break above the key psychological $50 barrier—for the first time in decades—generated a strong…
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Technical Outlook

Bitcoin rebounds strongly, recovering over half of its recent sharp decline

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 13, 2025

BTCUSD maintained a firm tone on Monday, extending its rebound from a new three-and-a-half-month low at 102880, recorded after the sharpest drop of 2025 on Friday and Saturday, during which Bitcoin lost nearly 10% of its value. The…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – bulls pause briefly before next assault on the $4000 barrier

Ahmad Elbasioni Oct 7, 2025

Gold remains the standout performer in the markets, consolidating modestly in early Tuesday trading after surging through the \$3900 level and setting a new record high at \$3977 on Monday, as the metal now tests the pivotal \$4000 barrier.…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – shallow pullback below new record peak viewed as setup for another push into uncharted…

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 30, 2025

Gold surged to a new all-time high of \$3871 on Tuesday, extending Monday’s sharp 2% rally, which marked the biggest daily gain since May 6. The move was fueled by intensifying concerns over a potential US government shutdown on October…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar Index – bears back in charge after recovery falters at key technical hurdles

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 29, 2025

The dollar index extended losses for the second straight session, weighed by mounting concerns over a potential US government shutdown and reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts, which overshadowed the support from last week’s…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – pullback from new 2025 high signals positioning for potential acceleration above 1.20

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 26, 2025

The euro inched higher on Friday as the second leg of the pullback from the new 2025 peak at 1.1918 found a footing at key Fibonacci support at 1.1655, marking the 50% retracement of the 1.1391–1.1918 rally. Near-term bearish momentum…
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Technical Outlook

WTI OIL – renewed upside momentum encounters strong resistance at the base of the thick daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 24, 2025

WTI oil extended gains for the second consecutive session, supported by renewed supply concerns and a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories (API report showed -3.82 mln bbls vs -3.64 mln bbls previous week). Prices advanced…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – break above the daily cloud sparks a renewed bullish signal

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 24, 2025

USDJPY strengthened on Wednesday, supported by a more cautious tone on monetary policy from Fed Chair Powell alongside increased demand from Japanese importers. The dollar regained momentum after Powell emphasized the need for a balanced…
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Technical Outlook

Silver – bulls pause below the key psychological $45 barrier

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 24, 2025

Silver price eased its momentum after reaching a new multi-year high at \$44.46 on Tuesday but maintains a solid bullish outlook, supported by the ongoing strength in gold. The Doji candle formed on Tuesday, followed by a similar pattern…
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Technical Outlook

Gold hits fresh record highs above $3700

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 22, 2025

A strong break through the key \$3700 resistance zone propelled gold to a new record high on Monday, with prices rising 1.1% since the open. The shallow retreat from the previous peak proved to be a brief consolidation rather than a…
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Technical Outlook

Cable – bearish momentum encounters resistance at the daily cloud top

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 19, 2025

Cable remains in a steep decline from last Wednesday’s 2½-month high at 1.3725, having already retraced more than 61.8% of the 1.3333/1.3725 rally and broken through the next key support at 1.3465, marked by the daily cloud top. The…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – decisive break above the daily cloud top strengthens the bullish outlook, with a bear-trap…

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 19, 2025

USDJPY regained momentum, bouncing near Thursday’s one-week high after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but signaled the possibility of earlier-than-expected hikes, which briefly strengthened the yen. The sharp rebound over the…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – broader bullish momentum holds as post-Fed pullback stabilizes well above key supports

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 18, 2025

Gold regained momentum on Thursday, rebounding by nearly \$40 after the pullback from its new record high of \$3707 found support in the \$3630 area. Prices initially spiked above \$3700 following the FOMC decision but quickly reversed…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar index – downside risks could intensify if Fed signals the beginning of a policy easing cycle

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 17, 2025

Bears paused above a fresh 11-week low on Wednesday, as markets awaited the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. The dollar index extended its downtrend from the early August peak around the 100 zone, remaining within the broader…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD climbs to fresh 2025 highs, lifted by sustained demand on dovish Fed outlook

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 16, 2025

EURUSD extended its advance on Tuesday, benefiting from persistent dollar weakness and accelerating to fresh 2025 highs, despite a brief and shallow dip following stronger-than-expected US retail sales and industrial production figures.…
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Technical Outlook

Gold surges to fresh record high on softer dollar and Fed rate cut bets

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 16, 2025

Gold climbed to fresh record highs in late Monday and early Tuesday trading, as bullish momentum returned following a four-day consolidation. The latest weakness in the US dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, where a 25-basis point…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD – bulls maintain control as Fed seen delivering fresh positive cue

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 15, 2025

AUDUSD held a firm tone on Monday, trading just below a new 2025 high at 0.6668, extending momentum from last week’s 1.4% rally, its strongest weekly advance since mid-June. The Australian dollar drew solid support from a weaker US…
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Economy

UK economy loses momentum in July

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 12, 2025

Britain’s economy stagnated in July, with growth flat after a sharp decline in factory output. The figures aligned with expectations for a softer start to the second half of 2025, though they proved disappointing for the government ahead of…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – bulls pause below fresh record peak as markets await key US inflation data

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 11, 2025

Gold prices traded in a tight consolidation below a fresh record high on Thursday, slowing momentum ahead of the release of US inflation data. Expectations point to higher US consumer prices in August, largely driven by import tariffs,…
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Economy

US producer prices post unexpected decline in August

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 10, 2025

US Producer Price Index slipped by 0.1% in August, following a downwardly revised 0.7% rise in July (from 0.9%), defying expectations for a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, PPI rose 2.6%, missing both the 3.3% forecast and July’s…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – recovery challenges key resistance levels, false downside break supports the move

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 10, 2025

USDJPY regained upside momentum on Wednesday after dipping to its lowest in nearly a month on Tuesday. The sharp downside rejection created a bear trap below the daily cloud base and formed a Hammer candle, both adding to positive…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – broader bullish trend holds firm ahead of key economic events

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 10, 2025

EURUSD extended its pullback in early Wednesday trading after losing nearly 0.5% on Tuesday, though downside momentum was capped despite a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Solid support emerged at 1.1690 (23.6% retracement…
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Technical Outlook

Gold pushes rally further into uncharted territory

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 9, 2025

Gold climbed to a new record high of \$3659 in early Tuesday trading, extending the sharp 1.5% rally from Monday that drove a decisive break and close above the key psychological \$3600 barrier. Fresh US labor data confirmed that market…
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Economy

US job growth slows further in August – NFP

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 5, 2025

US nonfarm payrolls delivered a major disappointment in August, with the economy adding only 22,000 jobs compared to an upwardly revised 79,000 in July and far short of expectations for a 75,000 increase. The report also showed…
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Technical Outlook

Crude oil stays under pressure as rising production and an unexpected build in inventories weigh on…

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 5, 2025

WTI oil stays in negative territory for the third straight session, hovering near a two-week low on Friday, pressured by signals that OPEC+ may announce additional production increases at its meeting over the weekend, alongside an…
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Economy

Eurozone inflation edges higher in August, matching expectations

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 2, 2025

Eurozone inflation rose to 2.1% in August from 2.0% in July, in line with expectations and staying close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, reinforcing market bets that rates will remain unchanged in the near term. Core inflation,…
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Technical Outlook

Gold holds close to a new record high, with upcoming US labor data seen as potential trigger for…

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 1, 2025

Gold extends its upward trend and spiked to the highest levels since late April, coming just short of a new record high on Monday. The weaker dollar on rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut, fueled by dovish remarks from US…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar stays under pressure on Fed rate cut expectations, with focus turning to release of key US…

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 1, 2025

The dollar index remains in negative territory for the fifth consecutive session and again pressures key supports at 97.61/52 (daily cloud base / Fibo 61.8% of 95.97/100.04), which have so far held firm against repeated attempts and…
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Technical Outlook

Silver jumps above \$40 to reach the highest level since 2011

Ahmad Elbasioni Sep 1, 2025

Silver accelerates higher at the start of the week, rising over 2% in Asia and early Europe on Monday to break above the psychological \$40 barrier for the first time in more than a decade. The metal extends gains to the highest level…
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Economy

US core inflation rises in July – PCE

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 29, 2025

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, increased by 0.2% m/m in July, easing from a 0.3% gain in June and in line with forecasts. On an annualized basis, the PCE Price…
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Technical Outlook

Gold extends gains above $3400, US inflation data in spotlight

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 28, 2025

Gold held a firm tone on Thursday, breaking through the critical $3400 resistance zone (psychological / Aug 8 peak) and trading at its highest level in nearly three weeks. Bullish momentum is being fueled by heightened uncertainty…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar Index – recovery extends as bulls test critical resistances

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 27, 2025

The dollar index strengthened on Wednesday, hitting a weekly high and showing resilience despite renewed political turmoil at the Federal Reserve following President Trump’s dismissal of Governor Cook. Fresh upside momentum brought the…
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Technical Outlook

BTC/USD – bearish pressure persists while price remains under cloud base

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 26, 2025

BTC/USD is consolidating after a sharp three-day selloff of more than 6%, largely driven by heavy institutional selling. The pair briefly rebounded from a six-week low earlier today, though the upside remains limited, highlighting…
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Technical Outlook

Gold rises amid heightened uncertainty following Trump’s firing of Fed Governor

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 26, 2025

Gold climbed to a two-week high on Tuesday, lifted by a fresh wave of risk aversion after President Trump’s decision to dismiss Fed Governor Cook deepened market uncertainty. The move underscores Trump’s renewed tensions with US…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – bears back in control though key support remains resilient

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 25, 2025

BTC/USD extended losses for a third consecutive session on Monday, retesting key supports at 11370 (100DMA / 50% retracement of 98182–124558) and 11072 (daily Ichimoku cloud base), after erasing Friday’s post-Powell rally and sliding to its…
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Technical Outlook

WTI extends rebound on supply concerns and fading optimism over peace talks

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 25, 2025

WTI crude extended its recovery into a fourth consecutive session, gaining fresh momentum on Monday after renewed supply concerns emerged following Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities. Rising geopolitical tensions and bleak…
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Technical Outlook

US Dollar Index – temporary stabilization ahead of possible renewed downside pressure

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 25, 2025

The dollar index steadied on Monday after nearly a 1% slide on Friday, its sharpest daily drop since Aug 1, triggered by unexpectedly dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium. The greenback tumbled as Powell…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar–yen recovers momentum following recent drop

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 25, 2025

USD/JPY edged higher in early Monday trade, recovering part of Friday’s nearly 1% drop that followed dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Friday’s losses were cushioned by the rising 55-day moving average at 146.60, which has been…
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Economy

Economic activity in Germany weakens sharply in second quarter

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 22, 2025

Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, according to revised figures released by the federal statistics office on Friday. The new data showed a sharper decline than the…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar index holds steady ahead of Powell’s remarks

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 22, 2025

The dollar index advanced to a three-week high on Friday, extending recent strength as shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy continued to support the US currency. Earlier signals of deeper policy easing—sparked by weaker July…
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Technical Outlook

WTI crude rises on stronger demand, falling inventories, and geopolitical uncertainty

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 21, 2025

WTI crude oil prices climbed to a one-week high on Thursday, extending early signs of stabilization and potential reversal after a recent slide from the late-July peak near 70.50 found temporary support around 61.50. The move was supported…
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Economy

Inflation in the UK climbs to its highest level in several months this July

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 20, 2025

Britain’s inflation accelerated in July, rising to 3.8% from 3.6% in June, surpassing the forecast of 3.7% and marking the highest level since early 2024. The latest data also revealed that the UK currently has the highest and…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD – near-term outlook stays neutral as the pair continues to trade within the daily cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 19, 2025

AUDUSD has stayed in sideways mode for a third consecutive session, with near-term action confined within a narrow daily cloud. Attempts to push above the cloud top (0.6512) were repeatedly capped by the daily Kijun-sen (0.6522),…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Crude – bearish pressure persists ahead of Ukraine peace negotiations

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 18, 2025

WTI oil prices slipped back into negative territory on Monday, after only brief support from U.S. threats directed at India to halt purchases of Russian crude. The decline pushed prices closer to the lower boundary of the near-term…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – bullish momentum holds above daily cloud as markets focus on Trump’s meetings with political…

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 18, 2025

Gold prices inched higher on Monday morning as investors turned cautious ahead of today’s meeting between President Trump and leaders from Ukraine and several European countries. Following last week’s Trump–Putin summit in Alaska —…
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Technical Outlook

USD/JPY – Bearish momentum softens, though downside risks remain

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 14, 2025

USD/JPY extended its losing streak for a third straight session on Thursday, deepening the decline and touching a three-week low. Fresh selling pressure drove the pair below key support at 146.80/70 (50% retracement of the 142.68–150.91…
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Technical Outlook

GBP/USD – Bulls extend gains for a second day, nearing key resistance levels

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 13, 2025

Cable extends its upward momentum, approaching key near-term resistance levels at 1.3588 (July 24 high) and 1.3618 (daily Ichimoku cloud top). Sterling’s strength in the past two sessions has been underpinned by a weaker dollar—driven by…
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Economy

US inflation posts moderate increase in July

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 12, 2025

US consumer prices rose modestly in July, with the CPI up 0.2% from the prior month, easing from June’s 0.3% gain, while the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.3% in July after…
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Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia lowers interest rate by 25 basis points in line with expectations

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 12, 2025

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.6% today, matching market expectations, after recent economic data suggested core inflation would remain near the midpoint of its 2%–3% target range, supporting…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – Bulls surge past 120K, approaching record highs

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 11, 2025

BTCUSD broke decisively above the psychological 120K mark on Monday, reaching its highest level in nearly a month at 122,300. The rebound from the 112K zone—marking both a higher base and the bottom of the pullback from the record…
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Technical Outlook

Gold breaks through a key resistance area amid renewed surge in safe-haven demand

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 7, 2025

Gold prices climbed on Thursday morning as a new round of US import tariffs came into effect, intensifying global uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand. The rally pushed prices through the key \$3400 resistance zone (76.4% Fibonacci…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – Bulls maintain strong control above ascending daily Ichimoku cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 6, 2025

EURUSD rallied on Wednesday, extending its post-NFP rebound after a brief two-day pause that followed Friday’s sharp surge. The bullish momentum resumed, lifting the pair to a one-week high and nearing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of…
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Technical Outlook

GBPUSD – Recovery loses momentum ahead of BoE rate decision

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 6, 2025

Cable edged lower in early European trading on Wednesday, pressured by disappointing UK data, as July’s Construction PMI dropped to its lowest level since 2020. Despite the dip, the pair remains locked within a narrow range for the third…
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Economy

Eurozone business activity saw a slight uptick in July – PMI

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 5, 2025

Economic data released on Tuesday indicated that business activity in the Eurozone picked up slightly in July compared to June, though overall momentum remained subdued due to persistently weak demand. The Eurozone Composite Purchasing…
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Technical Outlook

WTI oil extends sharp decline following OPEC+ decision to boost output further

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 4, 2025

WTI crude extended its sharp decline for a third consecutive day on Monday, nearly erasing last week’s rally from \$64.99 to \$70.50. The pullback accelerated after multiple failed attempts to break above the \$70.00 level — a key…
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Technical Outlook

USD INDEX – Bears pause following Friday’s steep decline

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 4, 2025

The U.S. dollar index edged slightly higher on Monday morning, recovering modestly after a sharp 1.5% drop on Friday — its largest single-day loss since April 10. The selloff followed weaker-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls data, a…
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Economy

A sharp decline in job growth and a rise in unemployment signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 1, 2025

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 in July, significantly below the forecast of 110,000 and well under June’s sharply revised figure of 14,000 (down from the initially reported 147,000). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from…
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Economy

Eurozone inflation holds steady at 2% in July

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 1, 2025

Inflation in the Eurozone held steady at the European Central Bank’s 2% target in July, slightly above the 1.9% forecast, reinforcing the ECB’s more dovish outlook on price pressures. The stable reading supports the central bank’s…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – Break Below Two-Week Range Signals Weakness, but Key Support Remains Intact

Ahmad Elbasioni Aug 1, 2025

BTCUSD dropped to a three-week low around the 114K area on Friday morning, as market sentiment weakened following President Trump's latest orders to impose trade tariffs on several countries. The decline, which broke below a two-week…
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Technical Outlook

Gold rebounds from a multi-week low, but upside momentum remains capped by strong resistance

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 31, 2025

Gold prices rebounded on Thursday from a one-month low at $3,268, recouping much of Wednesday’s sharp 1.6% decline. The previous drop was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, which surged on the back of recent U.S. trade agreements and…
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Technical Outlook

GBP/USD remains under sustained pressure

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 30, 2025

The British pound extended its steep decline on Wednesday, falling to its lowest level in nearly two and a half months. The pair has dropped for five consecutive sessions, sliding from the July 24 lower high at 1.3588. Sterling remains…
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Technical Outlook

EUR/USD extends sharp decline for a third straight day, awaits Fed decision for new direction

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 30, 2025

EUR/USD continues its steep decline for the third consecutive session, shedding nearly 2.5% since Monday’s open, as a resurgent U.S. dollar weighs heavily on the euro. The greenback’s strength is being driven by a highly favorable U.S.–EU…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Crude – Bulls Take a Breather Below Cloud Top After Two-Day Surge

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 30, 2025

WTI oil prices retreated slightly on Wednesday after hitting a fresh five-week high, easing from strong gains of more than 6% over the previous two sessions. The pullback was driven by partial profit-taking and rising uncertainty…
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Technical Outlook

The dollar continues to trend higher, supported by improved sentiment following the US-EU trade deal

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 29, 2025

The dollar index maintained a strong tone on Tuesday, climbing to a fresh five-week high and extending Monday’s sharp 1.1% gain—the largest one-day rise since May 12. The greenback surged after the U.S. and European Union reached a trade…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – Bulls Show Signs of Fatigue Near Key Resistance but Maintain Control

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 29, 2025

The strong three-day rally began to lose momentum on Tuesday, with the daily chart forming a long-legged Doji candle—typically a sign of market indecision. Bullish momentum showed signs of fatigue after the pair retraced over 76.4% of…
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Technical Outlook

Gold drops to three-week low as dollar strengthens on US-EU trade agreement

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 28, 2025

Gold extended its decline for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, continuing the slide from last week’s high at \$3438. The metal dropped to a three-week low, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar following the US–EU trade agreement.…
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Technical Outlook

XRPUSD – Bulls regain momentum as pullback finds solid support around the \$3.00 area

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 28, 2025

XRPUSD climbed to a five-day high on Monday, extending its rebound for a third consecutive session. The latest advance pierced the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the \$3.6522–\$2.9525 pullback, strengthening signals that the correction may be…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD retests key support area following steep decline

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 28, 2025

EURUSD retreated on Monday, erasing early gains after a gap-higher open, and fell nearly 0.7% during late Asian and early European sessions. While news of a US–EU trade deal initially provided support, the positive impact proved limited.…
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Technical Outlook

GBPUSD faces mounting bearish pressure

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 25, 2025

Cable remains under sustained pressure, extending losses into a second consecutive session with a 1% drop over the past two days. Sterling continues to struggle amid persistently weak UK business activity, accelerating job cuts, and…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – Bears reclaim control, eye key support levels for next move

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 25, 2025

Gold extended its decline for a third straight session on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and renewed optimism surrounding progress in U.S.–EU trade negotiations. Bears regained control following a double rejection and…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD drops to two-week low, but bearish momentum shows signs of waning

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 25, 2025

BTCUSD dropped to a two-week low on Friday, falling over 3% during the Asian and early European sessions as bearish momentum intensified. Deteriorating sentiment triggered a fresh wave of selling, driving the price below key support at…
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Technical Outlook

WTI Oil – Bears remain in control as trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 23, 2025

WTI oil remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, trading near a fresh three-week low. Despite a brief boost from the announcement of a U.S.–Japan trade agreement, bearish sentiment persists, weighed down…
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Technical Outlook

AUDUSD extends gains amid renewed risk appetite

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 23, 2025

AUDUSD maintained a strong tone and accelerated higher on Wednesday, extending its latest bullish run into a fourth consecutive session. The pair climbed to its highest level in over a week, supported by renewed risk appetite following…
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Technical Outlook

Gold reaches fresh 5-week high after breaking through key resistance around the \$3400 zone

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 22, 2025

Gold rallied above the \$3400 barrier on Tuesday, following a brief consolidation marked by a shallow pullback from \$3402 to \$3383, and proceeded to test the next key level at \$3420—the upper boundary of a triangle pattern. The sharp…
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Technical Outlook

USDJPY – Pullback needs to hold above 146.70 to maintain broader bullish structure

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 22, 2025

USDJPY remains in a narrow consolidation phase following Monday’s decline, which found temporary support around the 147 level. The pullback from last week’s three-month high at 149.18 has paused, but there is still room for further…
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Technical Outlook

Gold climbs as the dollar softens

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 21, 2025

Gold prices rose on Monday, climbing toward the upper boundary of the near-term range (\$3320–\$3377), following a rebound after last Thursday’s rejection at the top of the rising daily Ichimoku cloud. The daily cloud, which has…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar maintains a positive tone, with weekly close in focus for next directional cue

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 18, 2025

The dollar index continues to trade with a broadly firm tone and is on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, having broken through several key technical barriers this week. However, the daily chart suggests that bullish momentum…
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Technical Outlook

XRP – Minor pullback expected after reaching new all-time high

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 18, 2025

XRP continues to lead the cryptocurrency market, extending its sharp rally to a new all-time high at \$3.66 after a nearly 10% surge on Friday. Market sentiment was significantly boosted following the U.S. House of Representatives’…
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Technical Outlook

Gold remains within an extended near-term range, but the broader outlook continues to favor the…

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 17, 2025

Gold remained in the red on Thursday, pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, which reinforced the Federal Reserve’s position to hold interest rates steady until clearer signs of inflation emerge. Fresh bearish…
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Technical Outlook

The Australian dollar faced renewed pressure following weaker-than-expected labor data

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 17, 2025

The Australian dollar dropped nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s Asian and early European sessions, weighed down by weaker-than-expected labor data. Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped in June to its…
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Economy

UK inflation posts surprise increase in June

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 16, 2025

Britain’s annual inflation unexpectedly climbed to 3.6% in June, the highest level in over a year, potentially complicating the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI)…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – Holds steady with limited losses following U.S. CPI data

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 15, 2025

Gold dipped in an initial reaction to June’s stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which reinforced the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates, as policymakers await clearer signs of how tariffs are affecting consumer…
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Economy

U.S. inflation accelerated in June under the weight of tariff-related pressures

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 15, 2025

U.S. consumer prices rose more sharply in June, potentially signaling the start of a long-anticipated increase in inflation driven by tariffs. This shift has made the Federal Reserve more cautious about the prospect of resuming interest…
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Economy

China’s economy demonstrates resilience but confronts growing challenges

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 15, 2025

China’s economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter, showing resilience against U.S. tariffs. However, analysts caution that weak domestic demand and growing global trade risks are likely to intensify pressure on Beijing to…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – Pullback from the 3-week high has stabilized, but downside risks remain

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 14, 2025

Gold prices retreated after reaching a three-week high on Monday, facing repeated rejections at the key Fibonacci resistance at \$3373 (61.8% retracement of the \$3452–\$3246 decline). The pullback was brief, with fresh selling pressure…
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Technical Outlook

Silver Surges to Fresh Multi-Year Peak

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 14, 2025

Silver reached its highest level in nearly 14 years on Monday, briefly trading above \$39 as strong bullish momentum extended into a third consecutive session. Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and a weakening economic…
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Technical Outlook

BTCUSD – Break Above Key 120K Psychological Level Clears Path for Further Upside

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 14, 2025

BTCUSD surged past the key psychological barrier at 120K in early Monday trading, hitting a new all-time high above 123K as bullish momentum accelerated. The latest upside move, which began late last week, is being driven by a surge in…
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Technical Outlook

Gold – Fresh Bullish Momentum Accelerates, Breaks Through Key Resistance Zone

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 11, 2025

Gold surged higher on Friday, breaking decisively above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern on the daily chart at $3327, and pushing through the next major resistance at $3350 — a key confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the…
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Technical Outlook

Bitcoin surges on robust institutional demand, approaches 120K milestone

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 11, 2025

Bitcoin continues its explosive rally, marking a series of fresh record highs as the latest bullish leg stretches into a fourth consecutive day, with Friday’s gains accelerating—up 4.5% so far. The surge is fueled by renewed institutional…
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Technical Outlook

EURUSD – Bulls Maintain Control After Consolidation; Eyes Set on 1.20 Target

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 10, 2025

EURUSD is consolidating just below a fresh high at 1.1830 — its strongest level since September 2021 — as bullish momentum pauses after an extended rally. The euro continues to draw strength from broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, with the…
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Technical Outlook

GBPJPY – Bulls Lose Momentum Near Key 200 Psychological Barrier

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 9, 2025

GBPJPY retreated from a fresh one-year high as bullish momentum began to fade near the key psychological resistance at 200.00. The Japanese yen remains under broad pressure following repeated failures in trade…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – Bears strengthen control, retesting the daily Ichimoku cloud

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 9, 2025

Gold remains under pressure for a second consecutive day, weighed down by a stronger dollar amid growing risk aversion linked to rising uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy. Sellers are once again testing key support at…
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Technical Outlook

USD/JPY – Dollar Supported by Safe-Haven Flows

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 7, 2025

The USD/JPY pair rose 0.7% on Monday morning, supported by strong safe-haven flows amid growing risk aversion in global markets. The pair extended its rally and broke through the daily Ichimoku cloud (spanning 144.74 to 145.54), with…
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Technical Outlook

Australian dollar drops significantly amid risk-off sentiment ahead of the widely anticipated 25…

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 7, 2025

The AUD/USD pair extended its decline for a third straight session, accelerating losses early Monday by nearly 1% during Asian and early European trading, and sliding to its lowest level in almost two weeks after briefly dipping below the…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – Bullish bias holds above $3325, supported by U.S. fiscal uncertainty

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 4, 2025

Gold edged higher on Friday morning, recovering part of the losses triggered by the post-NFP reaction. The metal remains on course for a weekly gain after two consecutive weeks in the red, reinforcing the positive outlook as prices stay…
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Technical Outlook

Sterling plunges amid escalating political turmoil in the UK

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 2, 2025

The British pound weakened sharply across the board on Wednesday, following renewed political instability in the UK. The sell-off was triggered by a major setback to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget proposal, after significant…
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Technical Outlook

Dollar index – Bears Hold Ground Above Multi-Month Lows as Markets Brace for Key U.S. Jobs Data

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 2, 2025

The U.S. Dollar Index edged slightly higher on Wednesday after hitting a fresh 3.5-year low, supported by a surprise jump in the JOLTS job openings report, which improved short-term sentiment and triggered some profit-taking. However, the…
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Technical Outlook

GOLD – New Rally Offers Temporary Relief and Lifts Market Optimism

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 1, 2025

The rebound from the June 30 low of $3,246 extended into a second straight session on Tuesday, gaining momentum and retracing over 50% of the two-week decline. The move was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid renewed tariff uncertainty,…
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Technical Outlook

USD/JPY – Bearish Momentum Intensifies

Ahmad Elbasioni Jul 1, 2025

The USD/JPY extended its decline on Tuesday, breaking below the 143.00 level after violating key Fibonacci support at 143.23 (61.8% retracement of the 139.88–148.64 rally). The downtrend from the June 23 spike high of 148.02 remains firmly…
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