AUD/USD Bulls Take a Breather After Friday’s Strong Rally, Focus Shifts to Key Economic Data

AUD/USD pauses below a fresh 2½-month high on Monday, consolidating after last Friday’s 0.8% rally capped an uninterrupted eight-week advance.

The pair has broken through a significant technical barrier at 0.7180, where the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7277/0.6865 decline converges with the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion of the third wave within the five-wave cycle from the June 30 low at 0.6865. This area may generate stronger resistance, particularly as daily indicators remain in overbought territory.

Despite the possibility of near-term consolidation, the broader outlook remains firmly bullish, supported by positive momentum signals and a favorable fundamental backdrop. Limited pullbacks are likely to be viewed as corrective moves ahead of another attempt higher.

A decisive break above the 0.7180/0.7200 resistance zone, marked by key Fibonacci levels and the May 29 lower high, would confirm the continuation of the uptrend and bring the next major target at 0.7277, the May 6 peak and the highest level in four years, back into focus.

On the downside, the rising 10-day moving average and the recently cleared 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at 0.7100/20 are expected to provide solid support and contain corrective dips, preserving the broader bullish structure.

Market participants will closely monitor the release of the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday, followed by Australia’s July CPI data and the U.S. July PCE inflation report on Wednesday, for fresh clues on the policy outlook and the pair’s next directional move.

Res: 0.7180; 0.7200; 0.7222; 0.7277
Sup: 0.7156; 0.7120; 0.7100; 0.7071