XAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook: $2500 Target Remains in Focus, but Consolidation Likely Before Fresh Rally

Gold is likely to retest the recent record high and challenge the psychological $2500 level in the coming months, as all key factors driving the metal’s price remain supportive.

Persisting geopolitical tensions and threats of escalation continue to underpin demand. Additionally, growing signals of stronger monetary easing and significant gold purchases by central banks, led by China, bolster the outlook.

However, overbought conditions on the monthly chart, long upper shadows of the April and May monthly candlesticks, and June’s candlestick forming a long-legged Doji so far, indicate rising selling pressure and indecision, suggesting that bulls might be losing momentum.

This implies that the metal’s price may enter an extended consolidation phase, currently finding support around the $2300 zone. Dips are expected to hold above solid supports at the $2200 zone (psychological level / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $1810/$2450) to keep the larger bullish trend intact for a fresh push higher.