WTI Oil Recovers from Friday’s 3.1% Drop, But Pressure Remains on Peace Talks and Resumption of Northern Iraq Exports

WTI oil prices rebounded from a fresh two-month low of $70 on Monday, driven by partial profit-taking following Friday’s 3.1% drop—the biggest daily loss since November 25.

Fresh bearish momentum broke through the psychological $70 support and tested the lower boundary of the recent range, suggesting the broader downtrend may resume after a two-week consolidation.

Fundamental factors are also weighing on oil prices, as the resumption of northern Iraq oil exports and increasing prospects of an end to the war in Ukraine could add supply pressure while reducing geopolitical risk-driven demand.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, with strengthening negative momentum and moving averages in full bearish alignment, including multiple bear crosses (30/200DMA, 20/55DMA). Additionally, two consecutive weekly candles with long upper shadows indicate strong selling pressure.

A decisive break below key supports at $70/$69.90 (psychological level / 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of $66.98–$79.35) would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, exposing downside targets at $68.44 (Dec 20 low) and $66.98 (Dec 6 low).

Meanwhile, any corrective bounce is expected to provide fresh selling opportunities, with upside moves likely to remain capped below the $71.70 area (daily Tenkan-sen / broken 61.8% Fibonacci level) to maintain the broader bearish trend.

Res: 70.83; 71.49; 71.83; 72.75
Sup: 70.00; 69.41; 68.44; 67.69