WTI Oil Jumps Above $100 as Geopolitical Risks Intensify
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WTI crude oil prices surged on Monday, with markets reacting sharply to the breakdown of weekend peace talks between the United States and Iran, which reignited geopolitical risk across energy markets.
The contract opened with a strong gap higher, breaking above the psychological $100 level and climbing more than 5% in early trading. The move quickly reversed earlier optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic resolution, as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns over broader regional instability and possible spillover effects.
Sentiment deteriorated further following renewed supply-side fears after President Trump warned of potential action to close the Strait of Hormuz. He also indicated that elevated oil and gas prices could persist through the US midterm elections in November. Market estimates now suggest a potential supply disruption of around 750,000 barrels per day. Analysts also flagged heightened risk of wider escalation, particularly regarding possible reactions from China in the event of restricted passage through the Strait.
From a technical standpoint, Monday’s rally pushed prices above the 50% retracement of the $117.55/$91.09 bearish leg, signaling the formation of a higher low and a shift in near-term momentum to the upside.
Daily technical indicators remain predominantly bullish, with strengthening momentum and broadly supportive moving average structure, aligning with the improved fundamental backdrop.
A sustained break above the 50% retracement level at 104.32 would reinforce the bullish outlook and open the way toward 107.44 (Fibo 61.8%) and 110.00 (round figure). Near-term bias is expected to remain positive as long as prices hold above the $100 threshold.
