WTI Oil – Bears remain in control as trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment

WTI oil remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, trading near a fresh three-week low.

Despite a brief boost from the announcement of a U.S.–Japan trade agreement, bearish sentiment persists, weighed down by ongoing trade tensions with the EU and China. The European Union has yet to reach a deal with the U.S. and is reportedly considering retaliatory measures, while China’s stance continues to dampen market mood.

Traders are also monitoring the potential impact of the EU’s latest sanctions on Russia, which heavily target the Russian oil sector, along with comments from U.S. officials suggesting possible sanctions on Russian oil—factors generally viewed as supportive for prices, though not enough to reverse current bearish pressure.

Adding to the downside, supply concerns re-emerged after Azerbaijan resumed oil exports, following a temporary suspension that had previously tightened supply.

From a technical perspective, the outlook has weakened notably following a break below the rising and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud. The daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen remain in bearish alignment, reinforcing downside bias.

Prices are once again testing the 100-day moving average at \$64.93, a level that has repeatedly provided support. A decisive break below this area would open the way toward the next major support at \$63.99 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the \$55.70–\$77.88 rally).

On the upside, the base of the broken daily cloud at \$66.37 now acts as a strong resistance and is expected to cap any near-term rebounds.

Res: 65.80; 66.37; 67.18; 68.28
Sup: 64.50; 63.99; 63.05; 62.18