WTI oil – bearish momentum pauses

WTI oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after hitting a near one-month low, suggesting the steep decline, now in its second week, may pause.

The drop was driven by profit-taking from the $66.98–$79.35 rally, influenced by statements from President Trump about pressuring OPEC to lower oil prices to target Russian exports, alongside unexpectedly weak data from China’s manufacturing sector, which raised concerns about demand from the world’s largest oil importer.

Additional pressure came from warmer weather in the U.S. and market turmoil caused by a surge in low-cost AI models from China, which added headwinds for bearish momentum.

The recent decline found support at the 50% retracement of the $66.98–$79.35 rally ($73.16), with oversold conditions on the daily chart providing an initial positive signal. Northbound 14-day momentum emerging from negative territory further supports recovery prospects.

However, a significant barrier remains at $74.62 (200-day moving average and broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). The reaction at this level will likely determine the near-term direction.

A recovery stall below $74.62 would maintain broader bearish momentum, offering better selling opportunities for another downward push. Alternatively, a decisive break above $74.62 would generate a reversal signal, requiring further confirmation with a rise above the $75.00 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $79.35–$72.38 drop and 20-day moving average).

Res: 73.89; 74.02; 74.62; 75.00
Sup: 73.07; 73.16; 72.38; 71.71