WTI extends rebound on supply concerns and fading optimism over peace talks

WTI crude extended its recovery into a fourth consecutive session, gaining fresh momentum on Monday after renewed supply concerns emerged following Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities.

Rising geopolitical tensions and bleak prospects for peace talks remain the primary drivers of oil prices, though the rally could face headwinds if escalating conflict weighs on demand.

The technical outlook has improved after a bullish engulfing pattern formed on the weekly chart and prices broke above the 100-day moving average at $64.24. The recovery is now approaching a key barrier at $64.90, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $70.50–$61.44 decline.

A decisive break above $64.90 would strengthen bullish momentum and open the way toward further gains. However, warning signals persist as daily stochastic readings enter overbought territory and 14-day momentum, while improving, remains below the neutral line.

A repeated close above the broken 23.6% Fibonacci level at $63.58 is the minimum requirement to maintain the bullish tone. Sustained gains above $64.90 would expose the next resistance at $65.97 (50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen), with a break higher further reinforcing the recovery.

Additionally, Friday’s daily Ichimoku cloud twist may act as a technical magnet in the near term.

Res: 64.90; 65.12; 65.97; 66.50
Sup: 64.00; 63.58; 63.07; 62.51