WTI Crude – Recovery Struggles Below Key Fibonacci Resistance

WTI crude edged higher on Thursday, partially recovering from the previous day’s sharp 2.4% drop, following signals from OPEC suggesting additional output increases starting in June.

However, the rebound remains limited, weighed down by the prospect of further supply growth and continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs—despite a more conciliatory tone from the U.S. President yesterday.

The broader outlook is also clouded by global economic concerns, as reflected in the IMF’s recent downgrade of its global growth forecast. The potential for increased oil output adds to the bearish pressure.

In the near term, price action suggests that the recovery from the recent four-year low at $55.12 is encountering strong resistance. The $63.69 level—representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $72.27 to $55.12 decline and reinforced by the daily Kijun-sen—has capped gains for four consecutive sessions, signaling a possible stall.

Daily technical indicators remain mostly bearish, supporting this cautious view. A breakout from the current range, now in its fifth day and bounded by the 38.2% retracement at $61.67 and the 50% level at $63.69, is needed to establish clearer direction in the short term.

Resistance: 63.69; 64.21; 64.85; 65.22
Support: 62.14; 61.67; 60.00; 59.17