USDJPY – Retreat gains momentum under pressure from a bull trap and a thick descending daily cloud

USDJPY continues to retreat from a fresh multi-week high of 148.64 for the second consecutive day, as overbought conditions triggered profit-taking.

The broader uptrend encountered strong resistance from the descending daily Ichimoku cloud, with a brief attempt to penetrate the cloud (spanning 147.87 to 150.56) proving short-lived. The pair also failed to breach the 148.53 Fibonacci barrier (76.4% of 151.20/139.88), forming a bull trap that intensified downside pressure.

The thick, falling cloud maintains a bearish influence on the near-term outlook, while technical signals on the daily chart turn negative. Bullish momentum is fading, the stochastic indicator exits overbought territory, and the RSI is heading south towards the neutral zone.

Fresh bearish momentum is approaching critical support at 145.30 (38.2% Fibonacci of 139.88/148.64, bolstered by the 10DMA). A decisive break below this level would weaken the broader bullish structure, opening the path for further declines towards 144.26 (50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen).

The near-term outlook is likely to remain bearish as long as the price holds below the 55DMA at 146.50.

Res: 146.50; 147.67; 147.88; 148.64
Sup: 145.30; 144.82; 144.26; 143.80