USDJPY could decline further if US retail sales miss expectations in June

USDJPY remains in an extended consolidation phase following last week’s sharp fall, triggered by US inflation data and intervention by Japanese authorities.

The near-term action is holding above the 55-day moving average (157.55), which has repeatedly contained dips and currently serves as solid support.

Traders are pausing, awaiting fresh signals from US retail sales data due today. A miss in the June numbers could further deflate the dollar, potentially prompting additional intervention.

Weaker daily studies contribute to a bearish outlook. A firm break below the 55-day moving average pivot would expose targets at 154.98 (100-day moving average) and 154.54 (June 4 higher low), risking further losses if the latter level is violated.

Initial resistance is marked by the converged 5-day and 30-day moving averages (159.03), with upper pivot resistance at 160.05 (converged 10-day and 20-day moving averages).

Res: 159.53; 160.05; 160.25; 161.80
Sup: 157.55; 156.83; 155.71; 154.98