USDJPY – bulls take a breather in tight consolidation, awaiting a fresh directional cue

Bulls started to lose momentum, and the pair entered a sideways consolidation over the past two sessions after strong post-Fed and BoJ rallies pushed the price above the bull-channel’s upper boundary and the descending trendline connecting the 2024 and 2025 peaks. However, repeated failures to clear the Fibo barrier at 154.40 (76.4% of the 158.87/139.88 downtrend) capped further gains.

Overbought conditions have limited upside traction, keeping the pair within a tight range. Still, the overall bias remains bullish as the price holds above the broken bull-channel upper boundary, which now acts as support, though repeated failures to close above the breached bear-trendline indicate hesitation among bulls.

The daily chart remains strongly bullish, yet early warning signs are emerging with the stochastic and RSI moving sideways just below the overbought threshold.

On the hourly chart, momentum has turned neutral, with the top of the thick hourly Ichimoku cloud at 154.09 providing significant support so far.

For now, a wait-and-see stance is preferred, looking for a directional cue — either a break below the former channel line at 153.70 (initial confirmation coming with extension below 153.25, former tops, and 152.96, daily Tenkan-sen), or a sustained break above 154.40, which would reinstate bullish momentum and confirm the next leg higher.

Res: 154.40; 154.70; 155.00; 155.57
Sup: 153.70; 153.25; 152.96; 152.23