US inflation increases slightly below expectations, reinforcing market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next week

US inflation rose 0.3% in September, slightly below the 0.4% forecast, following a 0.4% increase in August. On an annual basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.0%, compared with market expectations of a 3.1% rise and a 2.9% gain in the previous month.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% in September after a 0.3% rise in August, falling just short of the projected 0.3%. Over the past 12 months, core CPI advanced 3.0%, marginally below both the 3.1% forecast and the 3.1% pace recorded in August.

The September inflation report—delayed by the U.S. government shutdown—showed that consumer price growth was slower than anticipated, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s policy meeting.

While economists had expected stronger price pressures due to import tariffs, many firms have so far mitigated the impact by stockpiling inventories ahead of the full implementation of duties.

Nevertheless, the inflation outlook remains uncertain, with price growth expected to accelerate again heading into 2026.