The dollar index held firm on Wednesday, ahead of key U.S. economic data releases and speeches from top Federal Reserve officials

The dollar index held a firm tone early Thursday, following a 0.7% rebound the previous day, as it once again failed to sustain a break below the key psychological 100 support level.

The greenback gained momentum from support at the 100 zone, along with improved sentiment as market views on the Fed’s rate outlook shifted hawkish. This comes despite mixed messages from recent speeches by Fed officials, who remain divided on the central bank’s next steps. Some policymakers favor more aggressive easing, while others caution that inflation remains a significant concern.

Investors are currently betting on another 50 basis point rate cut in November, though economists lean toward a smaller 25 basis point cut. This has contributed to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and pace of rate cuts in the coming months.

Attention is now focused on Fed Chair Powell and other officials’ speeches later today, as markets seek clearer signals on future Fed actions. Additionally, the release of U.S. weekly jobless claims and Q2 GDP data will also be closely watched.

The technical picture on the daily chart has shown slight improvement but remains overall bearish, with downside risks persisting as long as the dollar stays below the pivotal 101.00 resistance zone (converging 20/30-day moving averages). A sustained break above this level would ease bearish pressure and allow for further recovery, targeting the next resistance around the 101.80 zone. However, repeated tests of the 100 level appear to be the likely near-term scenario.

Res: 100.91; 101.00; 101.33; 101.79
Sup: 100.50; 100.00; 99.86; 99.20