Oil Prices Spike Toward $120 as Escalating War Clouds Supply Outlook and Signals Risk of Deeper Crisis

In a scenario widely anticipated by the market, WTI crude opened the week with a significant upward gap, surging to nearly $120 per barrel — its highest level since mid-2022.

Rising concerns over prolonged supply disruptions continue to drive prices higher, particularly amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, damage to key oil facilities, and sharply increased transportation risks and costs. These developments are fueling fears of a potential energy crisis comparable to the shocks experienced in the 1970s.

The swift break above the psychological $100 threshold and the rally toward the 2022 peak near $130 signal that crude prices may climb further and remain elevated for an extended period, potentially triggering a ripple effect across global economic sectors.

A subsequent pullback from the new high at $119.44 briefly pushed prices back toward the $100 zone, which has now turned into a support level. However, any dips are likely to represent positioning for another upward move, as the escalating conflict and worsening crisis continue to provide strong underlying support for oil prices.

Key support levels at $100 and $97.40 — the latter marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $61.75–$119.44 rally — are expected to contain downside pressure and keep the broader bullish outlook intact, opening the way for a potential advance toward $130, the June 2022 high. A break above this level could further expose targets at $135.13, representing the 200% Fibonacci projection of the rally from $54.87, followed by the psychological $140 mark.

Res: 105.83; 107.35; 110.00; 116.75
Sup: 102.65; 101.00; 100.00; 97.40