Gold surges to fresh record high on softer dollar and Fed rate cut bets

Gold climbed to fresh record highs in late Monday and early Tuesday trading, as bullish momentum returned following a four-day consolidation.

The latest weakness in the US dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, where a 25-basis point rate cut is widely expected (with a smaller chance of a 50-basis point cut), fueled the rally, alongside the escalating political turmoil in the US and parts of Europe, and mounting geopolitical tensions.

With the rate cut largely priced in, investor focus shifts to Fed guidance for the coming months, as expectations grow that policymakers will maintain a dovish stance, providing further support for the metal.

The \$3700 psychological barrier is increasingly under pressure, with a break seen opening the way towards 3734 (Fibo 138.2% projection).

Although overbought daily studies persist, bulls remain firmly in control, though a phase of consolidation or mild correction cannot be ruled out if fundamentals stay unchanged.

Res: 3700; 3734; 3750; 3789
Sup: 3674; 3624; 3600; 3577