Gold surges past the crucial $5,000 barrier and breaks $5,100 as uncertainty intensifies
Gold cleared the $5,000 barrier in a single move on Monday, as widely anticipated following weekend developments. It then surprised traders by extending the rally to $5,100 within just a few hours of early trading.
The metal opened with a gap higher, trading slightly above $5,000 after weekend news reinforced the bullish outlook. Rising indications of a potential U.S. strike on Iran further pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, amid a broader geopolitical environment nearing a boiling point. A weakening economic outlook with signs of a deeper crisis, escalating political and economic tensions between the U.S. and the EU (including the Greenland dispute and tariff threats), deteriorating prospects in Ukraine, and instability across the Middle East have all intensified demand for gold from both investors and central banks.
These conditions leave little room for any meaningful correction, despite overbought signals on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, as traders remain reluctant to take profits in a rapidly rising market.
The overall outlook remains strongly bullish from both technical and fundamental perspectives, with fundamentals continuing to drive the trend. If current conditions worsen or remain unchanged, the price could rise substantially further.
A close above $5,000 is the minimum requirement to keep the bullish case intact, while a clear break above $5,100 would confirm continuation of the uptrend.
Technically, the rally appears to be riding an extended third wave of a five-wave cycle from the $3,997 low on November 18. The broken round figure of $5,100 and the session high/new all-time high at $5,111 now represent immediate resistance, followed by $5,172 (Fibonacci 161.8% expansion), $5,200 (round figure), and $5,253 (Fibonacci 176.4% expansion).
On the downside, minor support is at $5,050 (intraday low), followed by $5,039 (20-hour moving average) and the key psychological level at $5,000, which has now turned into strong support and should contain any extended pullbacks.
The current structure favors limited profit-taking, with any dips likely to be shallow consolidations before positioning for further gains.
Res: 5111; 5172; 5200; 5253
Sup: 5040; 5000; 4965; 4937
