Gold surged more than 2% on Monday, delivering the first signs that its corrective phase may be coming to an end

Gold jumped over 2% at the start of the week, briefly surpassing the $4100 mark, improving the near-term outlook and reducing immediate downside risk.

The rally was fueled by weaker-than-expected US economic data, which pressured the dollar and reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, amid ongoing concerns about the economic impact of the historically long government shutdown.

Monday’s move saw gold break above key levels at $4046 (former congestion top) and $4075 (Fibo 38.2% of $4381/$3886 correction and 20-DMA), while briefly testing the $4100 psychological barrier, signaling a strong bullish momentum.

Daily technical studies improved following the completion of a bullish failure swing pattern, though further confirmation is needed through a sustained move above $4100 and potential extension toward the Fibo 50% level at $4134, as 14-day momentum begins to emerge from oversold territory.

A modest pullback from the two-week high reflected short-term profit-taking, prompted by overbought hourly indicators.

Support is expected around $4050 (50% retracement of today’s rally and former range top), providing a favorable level to re-enter long positions and maintain bullish momentum.

A firm break above $4100 would open the way to targets at $4134 (Fibo 50%) and extend toward $4192–$4200 (Fibo 61.8% / psychological levels).

Res: 4100; 4134; 4150; 4192
Sup: 4050; 4038; 4020; 4000