Gold slipped below key support in post-Fed trading but lacked momentum to confirm a decisive downside break
Gold edged lower on Thursday after testing key support levels at \$3374 and \$3365 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the \$3120–\$3452 rally, trendline support, and the 10-day moving average).
Near-term sentiment softened in the wake of the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s remarks. While Powell offered no surprises on the policy outlook—reiterating expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025—the Fed revised its inflation forecast higher and downgraded its economic growth projections, contributing to a more cautious tone.
Geopolitical tensions and continued uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy further cloud the outlook, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish-leaning message and weighing on gold.
Despite the dip through pivotal support, downside momentum has so far been limited, with the 20-day moving average at \$3350 providing a temporary floor. The failure to confirm a clean break below support has kept traders hesitant and price action subdued.
Markets will closely watch Thursday’s close for fresh direction. A sustained loss of the \$3374/65 zone may not significantly damage the broader bullish trend, as stronger support lies at \$3325/00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and psychological level), where deeper pullbacks are likely to stabilize and still be viewed as corrective within an overall uptrend.
Geopolitical uncertainty—particularly the risk of further escalation in the Middle East—is expected to continue supporting gold and limiting deeper downside, reinforcing a still-favored dip-buying approach.
The daily technical structure remains broadly bullish, with strong positive momentum and moving averages in near-full bullish alignment—suggesting current weakness may precede another leg higher.
The psychological \$3400 level remains a key near-term barrier; a decisive break above it would neutralize downside risks and shift focus to \$3452 (June 16 high) and the key \$3500 mark, a potential new record high.
Res: 3388; 3400; 3437; 3452
Sup: 3350; 3325; 3300; 3286
