Gold – sharp rebound signals potential trend reversal

Gold surged over 2% on Monday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade dispute, which reignited safe-haven demand.

The strong rebound came after repeated failures to break below key support at \$3,228 (the 50% retracement of the \$2,956–\$3,500 rally and aligned with the daily Kijun-sen).

Prices climbed back above the \$3,300 level and broke through significant resistance at \$3,315 (the 10-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the \$3,500–\$3,201 decline), signaling that the corrective phase from the recent all-time high may be ending.

A potential reversal is taking shape on the daily chart, as 14-day momentum has returned to positive territory after touching the midline, daily moving averages are on the verge of aligning in a bullish setup, and today’s strong bullish candle adds to the formation of a reversal pattern.

Sustained trading above \$3,300 would keep the near-term bias tilted to the upside, while a daily close above \$3,315 would confirm the reversal signal and open the door for further gains toward \$3,351 and \$3,386 (the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the \$3,500–\$3,201 move).

Markets will closely monitor developments in the US-China trade situation and await signals from the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC set to announce its rate decision on Wednesday.

Res: 3328; 3351; 3370; 3386
Sup: 3300; 3272; 3228; 3201