Gold rises above $3000, but downside risks persist.

Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, climbing back above the key $3000 level and partially easing the bearish signal triggered by Monday’s drop below this critical support, which had raised concerns of a deeper pullback.

The bounce was driven by profit-taking after a sharp three-day decline, as investors closed out long gold positions to cover losses in plummeting equities. At the same time, renewed demand for gold’s safe haven appeal amid heightened risk aversion helped lift prices.

As previously noted, gold’s reaction around the $3000 level remains central to determining near-term direction. Despite Tuesday’s recovery, downside risks have not been fully neutralized.

Markets are closely watching for developments on possible tariff negotiations, after over fifty countries reportedly reached out to the U.S. administration to initiate talks. Meanwhile, ongoing economic and geopolitical instability continues to support demand for safe haven assets.

The technical outlook on the daily chart has slightly improved, with oversold conditions pointing to potential for further upside. However, bearish momentum remains a limiting factor.

A close above $3000 would offer some near-term relief, but further bullish confirmation would require a sustained break above $3037 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $3167 to $2956 decline and the 20-day moving average). This would strengthen the case for continued recovery.

On the flip side, if prices fail to break above $3037 but hold above $3000, recovery hopes remain intact but tentative. A reversal below $3000 would likely be seen as a false breakout, keeping the door open for deeper losses towards $2911/$2900.

Res: 3017; 3037; 3050; 3061
Sup: 2978; 2956; 2926; 2911