Gold remains range-bound, awaiting US inflation data for new direction signals
Gold starts the week on a weaker note following Friday’s 0.8% drop, closing below the $2500 mark. The decline was driven by Friday’s US labor data, which showed lower-than-expected job growth, but a surprising drop in the unemployment rate eased concerns about a sharper slowdown in the labor market. This has reinforced expectations for a more modest 0.25% rate cut by the Fed, instead of a larger 50 basis point reduction.
Attention now turns to the upcoming US inflation data for August, set to be released later this week, which could provide further clues on the Fed’s course of action in its September policy meeting.
Despite the recent dip, gold remains supported by ongoing concerns about the US economy and persistent geopolitical tensions. This backdrop suggests a possible extended period of consolidation before the metal resumes its upward trajectory.
The technical outlook remains largely bullish, even though daily indicators have softened somewhat. The broader bullish trend should hold as long as prices stay above the $2470 support zone, which has formed the lower boundary of a three-week trading range.
Three consecutive weekly Doji candles indicate market indecision and a sideways trend, with mixed signals from daily indicators—momentum has turned negative, but both the stochastic and RSI remain positive, while moving averages show a mixed configuration.
From a technical perspective, dips toward $2470 are likely to offer fresh buying opportunities. However, fundamental factors, particularly this week’s inflation data, are expected to play a decisive role in shaping gold’s near-term direction.
If the $2470 support is breached, a deeper pullback toward $2431 (rising 55-day moving average) and the $2400/$2390 zone (psychological level and 100-day moving average) could unfold. Conversely, if bulls regain control and push the price back above $2500, focus could shift toward the all-time high of $2531, with a break above that level likely triggering further upside acceleration.
Res: 2500; 2505; 2523; 2531
Sup: 2485; 2474; 2470; 2457
