GOLD – rebound above $5,000 strengthens the short-term outlook and lifts market optimism

Gold climbed back above the $5,000 mark on Wednesday, as the recovery stretched into a second straight session after surging nearly 6% on Tuesday — the strongest single-day gain in years.

The brief easing in geopolitical tensions, which had triggered the latest correction in one of gold’s main drivers, appears to have faded. Renewed frictions between the United States and Iran revived safe-haven demand, lifting prices away from a vulnerable zone.

The daily chart strengthens optimism that the corrective phase from the record high at $5,598 may be ending. Repeated daily closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $5,598/$4,402 advance ($4,652), after the sharp selloff found support above the 50% retracement reinforced by the top of the rising daily Ichimoku cloud, point to a healthy correction within a broader uptrend.

This pullback offered improved re-entry levels for bullish positions and was followed by an acceleration in the rebound. Technical conditions also improved, with 14-day momentum rebounding after turning higher just above the midpoint, the RSI moving back above 50, and prices reclaiming the daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen in a bullish alignment.

A daily close above $5,000 — a key psychological level that also aligns with the 50% retracement and the daily Tenkan-sen — is needed to confirm a bullish signal and keep fresh upside momentum in play. Initial resistance lies at $5,100/$5,141 (round figure and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $5,598/$4,402 pullback), ahead of the $5,314 level (76.4% retracement).

Failure to sustain gains above $5,000 could allow a pullback toward $4,936, where the daily Kijun-sen is expected to offer support and preserve the near-term bullish bias.

Res: 5100; 5141; 5200; 5316
Sup: 5000; 4936; 4900; 4859