Gold prices rebound from a two-month low

Bears take a pause after a two-week decline (down 6.5%) from a record high, with gold finding support around the $2540 zone, held by the rising 100-day moving average (DMA).

The price rebounded from a two-month low on Monday, as the pullback encountered strong support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $2293/$2790 rally and the daily Ichimoku cloud base, aided by a pause in the dollar’s recent surge.

Fresh gains are targeting initial resistance at the $2600/$2611 zone, which has flipped from strong support to a solid barrier (broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement / psychological level / daily cloud base). A break above this area is needed to signal a reversal and shift near-term focus to the upside.

The recovery, following the steepest weekly loss in over three years (a 4.5% drop last week, driven by expectations of a less aggressive Fed stance on rate cuts), requires further clarity on the US central bank’s rate outlook to establish a firmer directional bias.

A sustained break above $2600 would reduce bearish pressure, with confirmation coming from a rise through $2633 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $2790/$2536 pullback / 10DMA) and further extension toward $2663 (50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen).

Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly the US greenlighting potential missile strikes deep into Russian territory and the risk of a significant Russian response—could provide robust support for safe-haven gold.

Res: 2600; 2611; 2643; 2663
Sup: 2564; 2536; 2524; 2500