GOLD – New Rally Offers Temporary Relief and Lifts Market Optimism

The rebound from the June 30 low of $3,246 extended into a second straight session on Tuesday, gaining momentum and retracing over 50% of the two-week decline.

The move was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid renewed tariff uncertainty, as President Trump’s July 9 deadline approaches with no extension expected. Additional market jitters over the pending tax cut and spending bill— which Trump insists must pass before July 4 — have further dampened sentiment and triggered a renewed flight to safe-haven assets.

The near-term outlook has improved notably after the recent downtrend was halted at the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud, with the subsequent bounce pushing gold safely above the $3,300 danger zone — at least for now.

A daily close above the broken Fibonacci level at $3,325 (38.2% retracement of the $3,452–$3,246 drop), as well as a break of the descending trendline, is viewed as the minimum requirement to keep the bullish momentum alive. A close above the breached $3,350 level (50% retracement and 20-day moving average) would further reinforce the short-term bullish structure and shift focus toward the next resistance at $3,373 (61.8% Fibo).

The daily technical outlook continues to improve, although the 14-day momentum indicator remains flat near the neutral centerline, and overbought conditions on the 4-hour chart suggest that bulls may pause or consolidate after the recent strong rally.

Any consolidation or minor pullback should stay above $3,325 to maintain the current bullish bias in the near term.

Res: 3358; 3373; 3400; 3437
Sup: 3330; 3325; 3302; 3295