Gold holds close to a new record high, with upcoming US labor data seen as potential trigger for fresh rally

Gold extends its upward trend and spiked to the highest levels since late April, coming just short of a new record high on Monday.

The weaker dollar on rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut, fueled by dovish remarks from US policymakers and renewed political turmoil, along with a deteriorating economic and geopolitical outlook, continues to support safe-haven demand.

Markets now await the release of US labor data on Friday for the latest update on a sector that has shown significant weakness in recent months and has been a key driver behind the Fed’s dovish stance.

The new record high at \$3500 stands as a formidable resistance level, likely to provide strong headwinds and keep upside limited until fresh signals emerge from the US labor report.

Forecasts suggest little improvement in labor conditions, with economists expecting NFP to remain nearly unchanged in August and private sector hiring to slow, reinforcing a negative outlook.

Overbought daily studies point to possible consolidation below the record high, while the development of a bullish continuation pattern on the monthly chart indicates potential for a renewed advance after a period of consolidation.

Gold may break into uncharted territory after several months of pause if labor data confirm persistent weakness, further undermining the dollar.

A firm break above \$3500 would expose targets at \$3544, \$3569, and \$3600. Former tops at \$3452 and \$3438 now act as supports, with extended dips expected to hold above the \$3410/00 area to preserve the broader bullish structure.

Res: 3489; 3500; 3544; 3569
Sup: 3453; 3438; 3410; 3400