Gold gains on heightened geopolitical tensions and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut

Gold reached a one-week high early Thursday, building on Wednesday’s nearly 1% surge, driven by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data that weakened the dollar and reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Rising geopolitical tensions also supported the rally, as threats from Israel to strike Iran sparked safe-haven demand, propelling gold away from the key $3000 support zone and shifting near-term bias to the upside.

After hitting a fresh high at $3377, gold saw a swift pullback to $3338. However, the price repeatedly held above key Fibonacci support at $3345 (38.2% retracement of the $3293–$3377 rally), which is reinforced by the rising 200-hour moving average—preserving bullish structure on the hourly chart.

The subsequent rebound has strengthened the outlook that the dip was corrective, and signals a potential for renewed upside momentum, with the hourly technical picture remaining broadly positive.

A decisive break above the $3360 resistance area (61.8% retracement of the $3377–$3338 pullback) is needed to confirm continuation of the recovery.

A return above the $3377 session high would open the way toward the $3400 area (psychological barrier / June 6 peak). A sustained break there would further strengthen the bullish outlook on the daily chart and expose the key $3500 target—a potential new record high.

Near-term caution is warranted on a dip below the 20-hour moving average ($3355), which could increase downside pressure and bring the $3340 zone and rising trendline support at $3327 back into focus.

Res: 3377; 3400; 3410; 3437
Sup: 3345; 3338; 3327; 3310