Gold – decisive break above $4759 signals continuation of bullish momentum
Gold maintains a firmer tone while trading within a narrow range and remaining below a key resistance level on Thursday, as market participants stay cautiously optimistic amid a still-fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
The market’s immediate reaction on Wednesday to the ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran was strong, with gold spiking to $4857, its highest level since March 19. However, the move proved short-lived, as prices subsequently retreated and closed at $4719, forming a Doji daily candle with a long upper shadow—reflecting indecision while also indicating increased supply at higher levels.
In the near term, price action continues to fluctuate between two key levels: support at $4603, which corresponds to the previously broken Fibonacci 38.2% of the $5419/$4099 decline, and resistance at $4759, the 50% retracement level. Despite the range-bound behavior, prices remain positioned in the upper half of the range and above the 100-day moving average at $4671, preserving a bullish near-term bias.
Technical indicators also lean slightly positive, as the price holds above the 100-day moving average for the sixth consecutive session. The convergence of the 10-day and 100-day moving averages is nearing a potential bullish crossover, while the 14-day momentum has returned to positive territory. Additionally, the RSI is gradually rising while remaining in neutral territory, supporting a cautiously constructive outlook.
A decisive break above the $4759 Fibonacci resistance is required to confirm continuation of the bullish leg that began from the March 23 low at $4099. Such a move would open the way toward targets at $4915/36 (aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the daily cloud base) and potentially extend toward the psychological $5000 level.
On the downside, the 100-day moving average continues to provide strong support, followed by the $4600 zone. A break below this area would weaken the bullish structure and sideline near-term buyers.
That said, geopolitical developments are expected to remain the primary driver of price action in the near term, while any further weakness in the US dollar would continue to support gold prices.
Res: 4759; 4800; 4857; 4915
Sup: 4700; 4671; 4603; 4553
